Initial Thoughts#
Although I was somewhat accurate in predicting the prices of bb, all my other predictions were completely wrong.
Note to self dont trust my ability to randomly throw out numbers, focus on big picture changes
Portfolio why I bought#
HIVE.V
made money previously in crypto, thought I could do okay with it again, with proof of stake transition, it should have a positive impact on crypto.
proof of stake for eth, see if it causes a price increase of 10% to 20% and see more adoption with the russian sanctions
btc and/or eth around 50k with more money printing
massive decefits in the future and decline of reserve currency usd
ZIM
shipping is a sexy industry
pe of 2 below industry average
more covid lockdowns and supply chain disruptions with the war (russia)
port union (labour disruptions)
expect sustained supply chain issues until 2023
more ships at this time means more money.
UAN
fertilizer prices are high have tripled
pays out solid dividend yields
american company (supply chain issues) like cn rail strike dont impact it
russia crisis continues, no peace between ukraine (why did I sell omega lol)
ERTH
ESG company that makes fertilizer
expected fertilizer prices to stay high over time with russia war
sanctions should remain after war, tho may get removed.
EGLX
probably unvalued
doing things like discord competitor
fond of addiciting games
growth company with decent projections
beaten down stonk
POW
discount to nav
solid dividend
hopeful immune from trudeaus tax changes
reliable company that always increases the dividend
payout ratio is sustainable
CM
costco credit card
small and nimble bank (dont like the super big ones)
dividend is decent and stock split in may
KNR
PE based on 2021 earnings is 98
if company keeps growing the pe will be decently low so,
if they double revenue and keep their profit margin
hoping for revenue of 35 million in Q1 2022 and gross profit of 3 million
major source of revenue is from housing, if housing goes down, then this company will likely not make money
revenue breakdown:
sass is declining
mostly project based revenue for housing which is all over the place
The above is actually terrible, dont listen to me ever.
Simple portfolio#
Despite losses in PKK, I still belive in the stock.
My simple portfolio for 2022 would consist of mainly ar, fintech, one stable dividend stock.
NTAR: 20% PKK: 20% ZIM: 20% VPH: 20% DCM: 20%
DII.B#
Dorel is a company that sells a bunch of different things.
They has sold off their biking business and have decided to give a special dividend of $12 USD to shareholders.
I believe with a current price of $15 CAD in a tax free savings account. The value cannot be understated here.
I have until January 17th to buy, and will likely use two or three goes to purchase shares.
A relative of mine thought that DII.B (dorel) was a declining business and overlooked the special dividend, so I think the stock price is greatly undervalued.
“The special dividend will be payable on February 1, 2022 to shareholders of record as at the close of business on January 18, 2022”.
With the extra cash I think its unlikely that the stock price would decline more than 50%, they still have other businesses.
With the recent rate hike scare, I should be able to acquire this asset around 24 or lower.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dorel-completes-sale-sports-segment-135500537.html
Plurlock Security#
1/16/2022.
As of sept 2021 they are sitting around 7.6 million, losing 1.44 million per quarter.
Can last until 2022.
Seems like a lot of their business is low margin, not really that interesting at the moment.
They are facing supply chain issues and making less on their hardware.
I want to see their software sales go up higher before investing, likely thats why their stock is down.
Not interested in low margin hardware sales while software sales remain flat.
PLUR.V wait and see
Zim Purchase#
Dumped a lot of money into zim.
Jerome Powell mentioned that supply chain shortages should “get” better in the second half of 2022.
Going to hold ZIM in my tsfa and pump and dump based on dividend news releases.
And rebuy in my taxable accounts to avoid the tax on dividends.
I think zim is an excellent buy, supply chain shortages should persist with the great resignation, new lockdowns and bottlenecks like more flooding and disruptions.
March 2022#
Expected to raise rates, but there is a high chance that the fed will delay or take it slow again. Buy the 5 to 10% dip on strong stonks like zim and/or small caps.
Buy zim in rrsp using new input money after canada does rate stuff on wednesday
dumped money in hive because crypto is more attractive as russia is cut off from the global financial system
I expect usage and price to remain around these levels
dump if price goes up enough
Messed up on hive (russia cant do anything even use cryptocurrency), hold hive for a while, no real use atm.
Tax loss selling
uan, solid company, should perform well with rising food costs and banning of fertilizer, american company, expect it to do well, with 5 dollar dividend.
As for zim, shipping rates should go higher with russia disruption hold until 2022.
there is a contract coming up in 2022, chance of port strikes are very high
wait and hold until the port strike in the usa.
vfv is an etf tracking the S&P 500 I can invest in using canadian dollars.
Russian Invasion II#
Peace is brokered#
sanctions removed
dump money in poyyf
loot russian stuff to pay for ukraine
War continues#
russia loots western assets
Russian Invasion#
Russia loses#
they run away, or akwardly attempt to broker peace
most sanctions remain, production has been wiped and investment not happening
production still messed up
Urkaine Wins#
russia keeps fighting for a while
damaged infrastructure, farmers have evacuated, cant start up production right away
expect costs to normalize after 2 to 3 years
Russia keeps fighting#
prelonged war, urakine not safe
production hampers, oil prices hit 200 dollars per barrel
status quo remains
Purchase Indigo Books and Music#
Ceo has a strong background in ecommerce and e books
Tech stack of indigo seems solid and modern (asp.net + react), .net 6.0 is badass and easy to update to .net 6.0 (solid products)
diversification into other industries
commitment to green stuff
solid growth in digital sales
project 100 million net profit in 2022
Blow out earnings, beat pre COVID Q4 earnings by 12%. Huge discount!
cash higher than market cap
Negatives#
Cant outcompete amazon
only make money in certain quarters
low shareholder equity