Video

Data

Text duration start ents sentiment
12 months ago the markets were absorbed 4.64 Jump to 37.28
    DATE 12 months ago
have allowed cobit 19 to reassert itself 5.6 Jump to 68.24
    CARDINAL 19
real after the market surge in 21 which 5.76 Jump to 116.24
    DATE 21
build on 2020's gains 4.561 Jump to 119.119
    DATE 2020
in the markets in 2022 7.201 Jump to 164.879
    DATE 2022
we've got a team of 20 analysts 5.841 Jump to 180.239
    CARDINAL 20
our analysts cover approximately 500 4.079 Jump to 186.08
    CARDINAL approximately 500
1934 so 5.399 Jump to 223.56
p 500 are leading 4.321 Jump to 241.439
    CARDINAL 500
impressive market breadth here in 2021 7.2 Jump to 256.4
    DATE 2021
again every one of these 11 sectors is 6.48 Jump to 271.04
    CARDINAL 11
each one of them and across the globe um 6.64 Jump to 283.44
in 2021 4.639 Jump to 303.28
    DATE 2021
and now let's move on to 2022 6.88 Jump to 304.96
    DATE 2022
and our eight fundamental forecasts for 6.321 Jump to 307.919
    CARDINAL eight
2022. 4.799 Jump to 311.84
    DATE 2022
as we saw in 2021 which was a recovery 4.24 Jump to 336.32
    DATE 2021
earnings growth in 2022 5.921 Jump to 342.639
    DATE 2022
but again not as strong as 2021 when 6.0 Jump to 345.36
    DATE 2021
stocks earnings increased to about 45 4.8 Jump to 348.56
    CARDINAL about 45
two-thirds of 5.359 Jump to 413.28
    CARDINAL two-thirds
so for the u.s economy in 2022 6.481 Jump to 418.639
    PERSON u.s
    DATE 2022
about three and a half percent growth in 4.72 Jump to 425.12
    CARDINAL about three and a
    PERCENT half percent
come to in 2021 is about five and a half 5.2 Jump to 431.52
    DATE 2021
    CARDINAL about five and a half
impressive recovery in 2021 6.24 Jump to 436.72
    DATE 2021
good growth in 2022 4.0 Jump to 440.08
    DATE 2022
just about two percent in the decade 4.479 Jump to 449.12
    PERCENT just about two percent
    DATE the decade
in 2022 it's just not going to be as 4.16 Jump to 457.12
    DATE 2022
as the rebound that we had in 2021 and 5.759 Jump to 461.28
    DATE 2021
one of the main factors driving the 4.959 Jump to 472.24
    CARDINAL one
down to about three and a half percent 3.68 Jump to 480.0
    CARDINAL about three and a
up toward 15 percent early in the 6.88 Jump to 483.68
    PERCENT 15 percent
pandemic and rapidly falling down to 4.2 5.921 Jump to 485.599
    CARDINAL 4.2
know here at the end of 2021 6.0 Jump to 494.72
    DATE the end of 2021
back to that three and a half percent 5.599 Jump to 514.56
four percent 4.72 Jump to 549.36
    PERCENT four percent
at some point in 2022 5.04 Jump to 550.72
    DATE 2022
going back 40 years that average service 5.681 Jump to 570.399
    DATE 40 years
payment as a percent has been 11 5.28 Jump to 573.04
    CARDINAL 11
it's down to around 9 3.04 Jump to 576.08
new variant of kova 19 emerges 5.279 Jump to 636.0
    CARDINAL 19
one is the housing market and there can 4.32 Jump to 672.959
the last three months according to the 4.56 Jump to 704.8
    DATE the last three months
been increasing year over year at a 20 5.039 Jump to 709.36
    CARDINAL 20
in 40 years 4.56 Jump to 717.2
    DATE 40 years
the way that it did in 2021 and that's 5.361 Jump to 760.079
    DATE 2021
one of the reasons we anticipate 4.801 Jump to 762.959
    CARDINAL one
uh the second chart here is a quick look 6.56 Jump to 769.04
    ORDINAL second
are about 11 4.161 Jump to 794.079
    CARDINAL about 11
60 4.399 Jump to 801.68
    CARDINAL 60
10 to 15 months 4.959 Jump to 824.24
    DATE 10 to 15 months
over these last three months so 5.44 Jump to 842.56
    DATE these last three months
going to be the problem in 2022 that it 5.521 Jump to 853.519
    DATE 2022
has been in 2021 5.68 Jump to 856.56
    DATE 2021
through 2022 5.199 Jump to 867.44
    DATE 2022
and you see those big swings in 2020 6.88 Jump to 869.6
    DATE 2020
that was 30 down 30 up with the onset of 5.601 Jump to 872.639
    CARDINAL 30
    CARDINAL 30
growth go from six percent to two 4.56 Jump to 885.76
    PERCENT six percent
    CARDINAL two
percent six percent in the second 3.44 Jump to 888.399
    PERCENT six percent
    ORDINAL second
quarter to two percent in the third 2.4 Jump to 890.32
    PERCENT quarter to
    ORDINAL third
we're anticipating solid growth in 2022 5.6 Jump to 904.56
    DATE 2022
3.7 3.68 Jump to 908.8
    CARDINAL 3.7
in 2021 uh but a lot of has to do with 6.88 Jump to 916.72
    DATE 2021
2022 we think that a lot of the trading 5.881 Jump to 938.839
    DATE 2022
in 2022 3.279 Jump to 973.92
    DATE 2022
at a healthy two percent growth rate 3.76 Jump to 998.48
    PERCENT two percent
the two percent line you can see many of 4.16 Jump to 1018.72
    PERCENT two percent
but with wages rising at about five 4.159 Jump to 1040.88
    CARDINAL about five
and the 10-year 3.841 Jump to 1057.039
    DATE 10-year
averaging about 3.5 percent not too much 5.36 Jump to 1060.88
    PERCENT about 3.5 percent
and one interesting anomaly here john is 3.601 Jump to 1097.039
    CARDINAL one
now our third chart is on inflation 3.68 Jump to 1108.4
    ORDINAL third
uh we our one year outlook for inflation 4.32 Jump to 1113.44
we're seeing right now by three year 4.56 Jump to 1119.2
    DATE three year
at about the four percent range and five 3.12 Jump to 1123.76
    PERCENT four percent
    CARDINAL five
around two percent 4.159 Jump to 1130.4
    PERCENT around two percent
even inflation does run at two percent 3.6 Jump to 1132.72
    PERCENT two percent
periods in the us in the past 80 years 4.0 Jump to 1145.36
    DATE the past 80 years
that's due to the first the 5.12 Jump to 1193.6
    ORDINAL first
the fed buying 120 billion in treasuries 5.281 Jump to 1202.159
    CARDINAL 120 billion
is above 8 trillion the fed has started 4.88 Jump to 1209.039
    CARDINAL 8 trillion
15 billion per month 3.921 Jump to 1213.919
    MONEY 15 billion
we believe that could double to 30 3.441 Jump to 1215.919
    CARDINAL 30
billion per month and we might hear 3.68 Jump to 1217.84
with tapering by spring 2022 6.0 Jump to 1226.72
    DATE spring 2022
to zero at the start of the pandemic and 3.84 Jump to 1253.44
    CARDINAL zero
reach four percent ahead of expectations 4.0 Jump to 1259.52
    PERCENT four percent
now look for two rate hikes in 2022 we 4.319 Jump to 1273.84
    CARDINAL two
    DATE 2022
then look for perhaps two to three more 3.921 Jump to 1276.559
    CARDINAL two to three
hikes in 2023 3.921 Jump to 1278.159
    DATE 2023
lift the defense funds rate to the 1.75 8.24 Jump to 1282.08
    CARDINAL 1.75
to 2 rate by say 2024 6.24 Jump to 1285.76
    CARDINAL 2
    DATE 2024
another one that's an historic high it's 4.64 Jump to 1296.32
jumped to 120 percent and is set to jump 4.161 Jump to 1298.559
    PERCENT 120 percent
one expects the us to default on its 5.361 Jump to 1310.159
evaluation in the market in our first 4.08 Jump to 1353.76
    ORDINAL first
after an earnings decline in 2020 3.6 Jump to 1362.559
    DATE 2020
2021 rebounded by over 40 percent 5.841 Jump to 1366.159
    DATE 2021
    PERCENT over 40 percent
looking out to 2022 we expect solid 5.36 Jump to 1369.52
    DATE 2022
growth but in the 10 range as most 4.799 Jump to 1372.0
    CARDINAL 10
and the comps get a little harder 10 is 4.321 Jump to 1378.559
the two asset classes are at fair value 4.079 Jump to 1412.48
    CARDINAL two
neither one is a screaming bargain 3.36 Jump to 1416.559
for instance over the past 10 years 3.6 Jump to 1421.52
    DATE the past 10 years
see are the two valuation models 6.0 Jump to 1440.48
    CARDINAL two
also the s p 500 is above fair value 7.2 Jump to 1452.64
50 below fair value and stock prices are 5.36 Jump to 1459.84
    CARDINAL 50
as much as 50 above fair value based 5.68 Jump to 1462.72
    PERCENT as much as 50
value in the s p 500 at about 3 800 6.08 Jump to 1478.24
which is 23 below the current level 4.48 Jump to 1481.84
    CARDINAL 23
23 percent overvalued because the other 4.719 Jump to 1486.32
    PERCENT 23 percent
2021 but was able to record strong gains 4.839 Jump to 1499.96
    DATE 2021
2022 will begin with all those 4.641 Jump to 1510.559
    DATE 2022
challenges front and center and 2022 is 4.559 Jump to 1512.48
    DATE 2022
below average year for stocks in 2022 6.159 Jump to 1525.52
    DATE 2022
2022 5.04 Jump to 1548.96
    DATE 2022
when um kovid first hit 7.039 Jump to 1558.64
10 11 12 3.761 Jump to 1574.559
    CARDINAL 10 11 12
and then it shot up toward 80 5.92 Jump to 1578.32
    CARDINAL 80
and it's right about at 22 so 6.159 Jump to 1595.52
    CARDINAL 22
three times a year for a five percent 6.24 Jump to 1616.88
    CARDINAL three
    PERCENT a five percent
and we just saw one you know right 5.12 Jump to 1623.12
    CARDINAL one
18 months so 4.559 Jump to 1663.36
    DATE 18 months
um 30 sell-off in stocks in march 2020 7.601 Jump to 1670.159
    CARDINAL 30
    DATE march 2020
so that should cover us for another six 4.0 Jump to 1675.12
    CARDINAL six
to eight months 2.799 Jump to 1677.76
    DATE eight months
near 20 near 22. 3.36 Jump to 1688.24
    CARDINAL 20
    DATE 22
of course be new variants of covet 19 4.88 Jump to 1694.159
    CARDINAL 19
the initial onset of covet 19 5.92 Jump to 1708.72
    CARDINAL 19
back in in march 2020 so 4.4 Jump to 1711.84
    DATE march 2020
hikes you know maybe two into 2022 7.92 Jump to 1774.08
    CARDINAL two
    DATE 2022
and we'd only been thinking of one so 5.521 Jump to 1778.799
    CARDINAL one
bond investors would put the 200 basis 3.6 Jump to 1802.799
    CARDINAL 200
would have a 10-year treasury yield now 4.801 Jump to 1812.159
    DATE 10-year
of six percent 5.279 Jump to 1815.12
    PERCENT six percent
and it's below one and a half percent so 5.12 Jump to 1816.96
    PERCENT a half percent
another risk for 2022 would be if oil 6.079 Jump to 1828.96
    DATE 2022
2021 3.279 Jump to 1839.12
    DATE 2021
out five to ten years 4.479 Jump to 1852.08
    DATE five to ten years
2022 3.92 Jump to 1861.2
    DATE 2022
as it did in 2021 5.28 Jump to 1862.72
    DATE 2021
looks like about three trillion dollars 5.36 Jump to 1887.039
    MONEY about three trillion dollars
i guess one of the things to think about 3.439 Jump to 1894.96
immediately and a trillion dollars was 5.36 Jump to 1903.12
    MONEY a trillion dollars
spent in you know a matter of three or 4.08 Jump to 1906.0
    CARDINAL three
four months 3.439 Jump to 1908.48
    DATE four months
these three trillion dollar this three 3.52 Jump to 1910.08
    MONEY three trillion dollar
    CARDINAL three
trillion dollar program 5.12 Jump to 1911.919
is uh expected to be implemented over 10 4.959 Jump to 1913.6
    CARDINAL 10
paid for and one of the 5.039 Jump to 1932.0
    CARDINAL one
and nasdaq is down one and a half 4.959 Jump to 1971.2
    DATE one and a half
in 2022 4.88 Jump to 1978.159
    DATE 2022
year one is a good year we're wrapping 3.921 Jump to 1999.039
    DATE a good year
up year one you know we're probably 4.72 Jump to 2001.12
    DATE year one
going to do better than that 14 average 5.36 Jump to 2002.96
    CARDINAL 14
in year one of a presidential cycle 5.04 Jump to 2005.84
    DATE year one
we're heading into year two year two is 4.56 Jump to 2008.32
    DATE year two year two
against what the 10-year treasury bond 6.161 Jump to 2058.879
    DATE 10-year
one um 4.159 Jump to 2066.48
    CARDINAL one
interest rates are higher and third when 5.68 Jump to 2100.32
    ORDINAL third
the 10-year treasury bond yield is on 4.64 Jump to 2104.16
    DATE 10-year
1960 so 60 years of of returns 8.721 Jump to 2142.079
    DATE 1960
    DATE 60 years
and on average since 1960 stocks have 6.32 Jump to 2146.96
    DATE 1960
returned 12 percent 4.4 Jump to 2150.8
    PERCENT 12 percent
and one out of every five years has been 5.76 Jump to 2155.2
    CARDINAL one
    DATE every five years
so double digit returns but 20 percent 4.08 Jump to 2160.96
    PERCENT 20 percent
negative year in stocks since 1980 and 6.48 Jump to 2165.04
    DATE negative year
    DATE 1980
we point out 1980 because that's when 5.12 Jump to 2168.88
    DATE 1980
13 on average 3.76 Jump to 2189.52
    CARDINAL 13
one out of every six years so 5.76 Jump to 2193.28
    CARDINAL one
    DATE every six years
way down from 1980 better returns in the 4.4 Jump to 2199.04
    DATE 1980
years where the 10-year yield was below 4.559 Jump to 2205.04
    DATE 10-year
4 4.0 Jump to 2207.92
    CARDINAL 4
was 16 4.96 Jump to 2212.96
    CARDINAL 16
and only one of every 10 years was 4.959 Jump to 2220.4
    CARDINAL only one
    DATE every 10 years
outlook we think the 10-year is going to 4.24 Jump to 2229.04
    DATE 10-year
you know two and a half 2.75 percent 5.68 Jump to 2233.28
    DATE two and a half
    PERCENT 2.75 percent
in 2022 4.48 Jump to 2236.72
    DATE 2022
year two of the presidential cycle 5.76 Jump to 2251.68
    CARDINAL two
since 1980 stocks have returned 12 on 4.639 Jump to 2257.44
    DATE 1980
    CARDINAL 12
but our we haven't set a s p 500 target 5.201 Jump to 2269.119
    CARDINAL 500
settles in 2021 but we think returns are 5.52 Jump to 2276.0
    DATE 2021
eight to ten percent 2.96 Jump to 2281.52
    PERCENT eight to ten percent
so one of the questions we've had coming 5.601 Jump to 2306.079
in and i'm going to take this one john 5.199 Jump to 2308.16
and i'll and i have one for you next and 2.64 Jump to 2311.68
it well i i would you know one one thing 3.68 Jump to 2320.8
uh looking looking at this four year 4.08 Jump to 2325.2
    DATE this four year
the election in the first year of the 3.2 Jump to 2329.28
    DATE the first year
um and then as the second year comes 4.72 Jump to 2347.52
    DATE the second year
this is not the first time the us has 5.28 Jump to 2363.52
    ORDINAL first
when one party controls the white house 6.321 Jump to 2387.359
    CARDINAL one
and one party controls the congress 5.28 Jump to 2390.079
    CARDINAL one
the sitting president loses 50 or 60 4.32 Jump to 2410.72
    CARDINAL 50
the normal pattern uh in 2022 you would 6.72 Jump to 2417.44
    DATE 2022
see the congress tip over to one side of 4.72 Jump to 2421.2
as well and that's one reason why the 3.76 Jump to 2438.72
    CARDINAL one
is not uh necessarily one of the better 5.52 Jump to 2442.48
and i will tell you that for the past 10 4.32 Jump to 2473.92
i guess 11 years now 6.72 Jump to 2478.24
    DATE 11 years
however in 2021 you probably remember 6.72 Jump to 2543.44
    DATE 2021
fall from eight percent of the stock 5.76 Jump to 2552.16
    PERCENT eight percent
market to two percent it was deep value 6.32 Jump to 2554.24
    PERCENT two percent
um through the first of the year 3.92 Jump to 2568.56
through the first half of the year but 2.88 Jump to 2571.28
    DATE the first half of the year
in the second half 3.839 Jump to 2572.48
    DATE the second half
performer for about 10 years now 5.2 Jump to 2621.44
    DATE about 10 years
10-year yields negative 5.599 Jump to 2638.48
    DATE 10-year
that's really down like the the five to 4.881 Jump to 2655.359
    CARDINAL five
ten percent range jim our our focus 4.96 Jump to 2657.44
    PERCENT ten percent
chart we pointed out that our three-year 5.04 Jump to 2676.079
    DATE three-year
uh all 11 sectors but what are some 5.201 Jump to 2698.079
    CARDINAL 11
in 2022 as it was this year what what 4.399 Jump to 2733.44
    DATE 2022
    DATE this year
well one jim was that ism supply chain 6.0 Jump to 2743.68
at you know something close to 70. and 5.52 Jump to 2754.64
    CARDINAL 70
anytime they're over 50 you know they're 4.959 Jump to 2760.16
70 over the past three months 5.039 Jump to 2772.8
    CARDINAL 70
    DATE the past three months
toward the 60 which is still a high 3.841 Jump to 2777.839
    CARDINAL 60
so so that's one factor 4.72 Jump to 2784.48
    CARDINAL one
for the longest time let's say for 20 4.881 Jump to 2801.599
    CARDINAL 20
years that was 63 percent 4.48 Jump to 2803.52
    DATE years
    PERCENT 63 percent
to 61 percent a lot of people have left 7.2 Jump to 2810.24
    PERCENT 61 percent
be important in in 2022 5.84 Jump to 2904.4
    DATE 2022
so so jim let's take a second and go 4.24 Jump to 2908.079
    ORDINAL second
through these last two slides maybe 4.319 Jump to 2910.24
    CARDINAL two
here are the 11 sectors we like some of 4.561 Jump to 2945.359
    CARDINAL 11
um and those are two of the bigger 4.72 Jump to 2963.44
    CARDINAL two
sectors in the market at 28 5.28 Jump to 2965.2
    CARDINAL 28
and 13 4.88 Jump to 2968.16
    CARDINAL 13
short-term rates in 2022 that takes us 5.839 Jump to 2998.72
    DATE 2022
and this is the themes for 2022 6.8 Jump to 3020.88
    DATE 2022
and you can read in depth about any one 4.561 Jump to 3076.079
um and we're thinking about in 2022 4.32 Jump to 3105.92
    DATE 2022
instance 5g goes mainstream well people 4.0 Jump to 3231.52
    CARDINAL 5
maybe think well gee 5g 3.921 Jump to 3233.599
    CARDINAL 5
i mean you know the first iphones it's 3.28 Jump to 3235.52
    ORDINAL first
actually see that it's accessing a 5g 4.401 Jump to 3254.559
    CARDINAL 5
content per device in a 5g phone than a 4.801 Jump to 3273.599
    CARDINAL 5
4g phone 3.92 Jump to 3276.24
    CARDINAL 4
if you're one of these 4.159 Jump to 3278.4
one of the service providers you're 4.0 Jump to 3285.2
    CARDINAL one
uh jim i see one in here let's touch on 5.28 Jump to 3336.96
so argus covers the 500 stocks we cover 5.921 Jump to 3346.319
    CARDINAL 500
closely and we're watching it from three 3.92 Jump to 3363.04
    CARDINAL three
one is from the angle of a consumer 6.639 Jump to 3366.96
uh so consumer is one area 6.439 Jump to 3396.4
    CARDINAL one
sixty thousand forty thousand thirty 4.64 Jump to 3406.88
    DATE sixty thousand forty thousand thirty
thousand it's it's it's been you know to 4.32 Jump to 3408.96
just in uh 2021 7.36 Jump to 3413.28
    DATE 2021
it's about three trillion dollars 4.48 Jump to 3424.319
    MONEY about three trillion dollars
fund uh you know maybe two or three 4.0 Jump to 3440.88
    CARDINAL two or three
bitcoin is at 3 trillion gold is at 10 6.0 Jump to 3451.52
    CARDINAL 3 trillion
    CARDINAL 10
trillion so bit the cryptocurrency would 5.679 Jump to 3454.64
i'm gonna say three or four years before 5.12 Jump to 3490.64
    DATE three or four years
you know crypto starts to make a two or 3.601 Jump to 3493.359
    CARDINAL two
three percent 5.28 Jump to 3495.76
    PERCENT three percent
and then the third way to play it of 4.72 Jump to 3501.04
    ORDINAL third
know even at that you know kind of one 4.24 Jump to 3530.24
    CARDINAL one
to two percent area so those are our 4.961 Jump to 3532.079
    PERCENT two percent