| policy interest rate near zero |
4.4 |
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| months averaging 365 000 per month over |
5.44 |
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| the past three months |
4.0 |
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DATE
the past three months
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| has risen by 6.4 million jobs |
5.12 |
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| sharply falling two percentage points |
4.32 |
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| over the past six months |
5.839 |
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| to reach 3.9 percent in december |
5.839 |
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| run goal of 2 percent |
4.401 |
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| inflation that is well above our two |
3.601 |
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| thank you for the first question we'll |
3.841 |
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| actually two-sided risks now um |
3.601 |
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| began raising rates in 2015. |
4.959 |
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| inflation is running well above our two |
3.04 |
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| over over the course of two or three |
4.081 |
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| would point you to principle number one |
3.76 |
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| relationship between the two for example |
5.12 |
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| reluctant to land on one of them that |
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| financial conditions not one or two |
3.76 |
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| things one or two markets and what we're |
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| we're not looking at any one market or |
3.04 |
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| expected three rate increases this year |
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| and um you know it's six weeks seven |
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| one sort of technical question and one |
4.48 |
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| correct that's the first thing second of |
5.28 |
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| balance sheet is a complicated one and |
4.96 |
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| it's time to stop asset purchases first |
5.2 |
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| we'll have at least one other discussion |
3.44 |
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| two-sided i'm wondering if you can |
4.08 |
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| and then second chairpal i have a quick |
4.88 |
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| you asked about the risks first |
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| so i you know the one risk is that |
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| different outcomes including the one |
3.68 |
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| expansion we saw labor first |
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| two percent goal |
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| so i mentioned two-sided risks |
3.919 |
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| a couple of things one |
4.801 |
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| december is a reasonable one and if |
3.12 |
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| we get from here seven percent cpi to |
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| raise my own estimate of 2022 |
5.761 |
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| an impulse to growth over the last two |
3.439 |
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| so that's another thing the other one is |
3.361 |
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| inflation back down to two percent it's |
4.16 |
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| larger increments and say doing a 50 |
4.48 |
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| 2015 16 17 18 we were raising rates |
5.92 |
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| inflation was very close to two percent |
4.08 |
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PERCENT
close to two percent
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| even below two percent unemployment was |
5.199 |
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| the two to three percent range |
4.16 |
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PERCENT
two to three percent
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| substantially above two percent and and |
4.0 |
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PERCENT
above two percent
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|
| for 2022 |
3.84 |
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| february of 2020 |
4.08 |
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| year over year inflation's at a 40-year |
4.08 |
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| price index for all of 2021 was the |
4.24 |
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| hike more than 25 basis points discussed |
4.401 |
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| chip shortage will last into 2023. so |
4.24 |
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| uh in the second half of this year |
4.24 |
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DATE
the second half of this year
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| they'll go more than through to uh 2023. |
5.919 |
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| to 2 |
4.239 |
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| do you want to go below 2 so that on |
6.24 |
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| average you get a 2 inflation rate and |
6.0 |
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| below two percent |
4.16 |
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PERCENT
below two percent
|
|
| well anchored at two percent that that's |
3.04 |
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| inflation average two percent over time |
3.121 |
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| and if inflation doesn't average two |
2.88 |
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| anchored at two percent so that that's |
3.92 |
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| potential growth is around two most |
3.839 |
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| for 2022 |
4.321 |
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|
| to two percent |
3.361 |
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|
|
| no one really knows what that will take |
4.0 |
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| two percent and a situation where where |
5.439 |
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| the two goals or the two goals can be |
4.08 |
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|
| it's a difficult one but but i i don't |
3.2 |
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|
| amount in one course so there was a real |
3.12 |
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|
|
| look in 25 years we'll look back at this |
5.119 |
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|
| incident which will be a you know two |
4.72 |
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|
| three four five year period |
3.841 |
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DATE
three four five year
|
|
| how that looks in 25 years |
4.079 |
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|
| one thing i would say another is |
3.919 |
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|
| two to your treasury to ten year |
3.44 |
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|
| treasury i think that's around 75 basis |
2.879 |
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| telling us and it's but it's one of many |
4.72 |
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|
| you mentioned really asset prices is one |
3.041 |
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|
| of the four |
2.799 |
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|