| policy interest rate near zero | 4.4 | Jump to 571.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | months averaging 365 000 per month over | 5.44 | Jump to 688.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the past three months | 4.0 | Jump to 692.24 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        the past three months
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | has risen by 6.4 million jobs | 5.12 | Jump to 696.24 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | sharply falling two percentage points | 4.32 | Jump to 701.36 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | over the past six months | 5.839 | Jump to 703.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | to reach 3.9 percent in december | 5.839 | Jump to 705.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | run goal of 2 percent | 4.401 | Jump to 767.839 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | inflation that is well above our two | 3.601 | Jump to 882.399 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | thank you for the first question we'll | 3.841 | Jump to 1024.559 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | actually two-sided risks now um | 3.601 | Jump to 1084.799 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | began raising rates in 2015. | 4.959 | Jump to 1111.84 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | inflation is running well above our two | 3.04 | Jump to 1120.08 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | over over the course of two or three | 4.081 | Jump to 1440.159 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | would point you to principle number one | 3.76 | Jump to 1482.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | relationship between the two for example | 5.12 | Jump to 1517.919 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | reluctant to land on one of them that | 4.24 | Jump to 1542.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | financial conditions not one or two | 3.76 | Jump to 1641.039 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | things one or two markets and what we're | 4.319 | Jump to 1642.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | we're not looking at any one market or | 3.04 | Jump to 1663.44 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | expected three rate increases this year | 5.359 | Jump to 1680.32 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | and um you know it's six weeks seven | 6.401 | Jump to 1683.039 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | one sort of technical question and one | 4.48 | Jump to 1937.76 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | correct that's the first thing second of | 5.28 | Jump to 1957.84 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | balance sheet is a complicated one and | 4.96 | Jump to 2013.36 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | it's time to stop asset purchases first | 5.2 | Jump to 2112.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | we'll have at least one other discussion | 3.44 | Jump to 2169.04 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | two-sided i'm wondering if you can | 4.08 | Jump to 2214.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | and then second chairpal i have a quick | 4.88 | Jump to 2225.44 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | you asked about the risks first | 4.64 | Jump to 2268.8 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | so i you know the one risk is that | 5.36 | Jump to 2270.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | different outcomes including the one | 3.68 | Jump to 2311.2 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | expansion we saw labor first | 4.96 | Jump to 2329.119 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | two percent goal | 3.92 | Jump to 2358.24 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | so i mentioned two-sided risks | 3.919 | Jump to 2359.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | a couple of things one | 4.801 | Jump to 2363.599 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | december is a reasonable one and if | 3.12 | Jump to 2482.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | we get from here seven percent cpi to | 3.919 | Jump to 2492.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | raise my own estimate of 2022 | 5.761 | Jump to 2513.119 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | an impulse to growth over the last two | 3.439 | Jump to 2600.64 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | so that's another thing the other one is | 3.361 | Jump to 2606.319 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | inflation back down to two percent it's | 4.16 | Jump to 2646.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | larger increments and say doing a 50 | 4.48 | Jump to 2711.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 2015 16 17 18 we were raising rates | 5.92 | Jump to 2740.24 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | inflation was very close to two percent | 4.08 | Jump to 2744.4 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        close to two percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | even below two percent unemployment was | 5.199 | Jump to 2746.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the two to three percent range | 4.16 | Jump to 2754.4 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        two to three percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | substantially above two percent and and | 4.0 | Jump to 2758.56 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        above two percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | for 2022 | 3.84 | Jump to 2766.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | february of 2020 | 4.08 | Jump to 2812.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | year over year inflation's at a 40-year | 4.08 | Jump to 2983.44 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | price index for all of 2021 was the | 4.24 | Jump to 2987.52 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | hike more than 25 basis points discussed | 4.401 | Jump to 2997.839 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | chip shortage will last into 2023. so | 4.24 | Jump to 3013.52 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | uh in the second half of this year | 4.24 | Jump to 3037.359 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        the second half of this year
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | they'll go more than through to uh 2023. | 5.919 | Jump to 3058.64 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | to 2 | 4.239 | Jump to 3148.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | do you want to go below 2 so that on | 6.24 | Jump to 3150.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | average you get a 2 inflation rate and | 6.0 | Jump to 3153.119 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | below two percent | 4.16 | Jump to 3172.0 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        below two percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | well anchored at two percent that that's | 3.04 | Jump to 3184.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | inflation average two percent over time | 3.121 | Jump to 3195.839 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | and if inflation doesn't average two | 2.88 | Jump to 3197.52 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | anchored at two percent so that that's | 3.92 | Jump to 3202.24 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | potential growth is around two most | 3.839 | Jump to 3238.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | for 2022 | 4.321 | Jump to 3242.559 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | to two percent | 3.361 | Jump to 3257.359 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | no one really knows what that will take | 4.0 | Jump to 3268.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | two percent and a situation where where | 5.439 | Jump to 3286.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the two goals or the two goals can be | 4.08 | Jump to 3288.64 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | it's a difficult one but but i i don't | 3.2 | Jump to 3292.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | amount in one course so there was a real | 3.12 | Jump to 3439.04 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | look in 25 years we'll look back at this | 5.119 | Jump to 3511.44 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | incident which will be a you know two | 4.72 | Jump to 3513.839 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | three four five year period | 3.841 | Jump to 3516.559 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        three four five year
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | how that looks in 25 years | 4.079 | Jump to 3538.24 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | one thing i would say another is | 3.919 | Jump to 3594.64 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | two to your treasury to ten year | 3.44 | Jump to 3600.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | treasury i think that's around 75 basis | 2.879 | Jump to 3602.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | telling us and it's but it's one of many | 4.72 | Jump to 3622.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | you mentioned really asset prices is one | 3.041 | Jump to 3817.839 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | of the four | 2.799 | Jump to 3819.76 |  |  |