policy interest rate near zero |
4.4 |
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months averaging 365 000 per month over |
5.44 |
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the past three months |
4.0 |
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DATE
the past three months
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has risen by 6.4 million jobs |
5.12 |
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sharply falling two percentage points |
4.32 |
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over the past six months |
5.839 |
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to reach 3.9 percent in december |
5.839 |
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run goal of 2 percent |
4.401 |
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inflation that is well above our two |
3.601 |
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thank you for the first question we'll |
3.841 |
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actually two-sided risks now um |
3.601 |
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began raising rates in 2015. |
4.959 |
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inflation is running well above our two |
3.04 |
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over over the course of two or three |
4.081 |
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would point you to principle number one |
3.76 |
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relationship between the two for example |
5.12 |
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reluctant to land on one of them that |
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financial conditions not one or two |
3.76 |
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things one or two markets and what we're |
4.319 |
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we're not looking at any one market or |
3.04 |
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expected three rate increases this year |
5.359 |
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and um you know it's six weeks seven |
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one sort of technical question and one |
4.48 |
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correct that's the first thing second of |
5.28 |
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balance sheet is a complicated one and |
4.96 |
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it's time to stop asset purchases first |
5.2 |
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we'll have at least one other discussion |
3.44 |
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two-sided i'm wondering if you can |
4.08 |
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and then second chairpal i have a quick |
4.88 |
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you asked about the risks first |
4.64 |
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so i you know the one risk is that |
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different outcomes including the one |
3.68 |
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expansion we saw labor first |
4.96 |
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two percent goal |
3.92 |
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so i mentioned two-sided risks |
3.919 |
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a couple of things one |
4.801 |
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december is a reasonable one and if |
3.12 |
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we get from here seven percent cpi to |
3.919 |
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raise my own estimate of 2022 |
5.761 |
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|
an impulse to growth over the last two |
3.439 |
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|
so that's another thing the other one is |
3.361 |
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|
inflation back down to two percent it's |
4.16 |
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|
larger increments and say doing a 50 |
4.48 |
Jump to 2711.68 |
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|
2015 16 17 18 we were raising rates |
5.92 |
Jump to 2740.24 |
|
|
inflation was very close to two percent |
4.08 |
Jump to 2744.4 |
PERCENT
close to two percent
|
|
even below two percent unemployment was |
5.199 |
Jump to 2746.16 |
|
|
the two to three percent range |
4.16 |
Jump to 2754.4 |
PERCENT
two to three percent
|
|
substantially above two percent and and |
4.0 |
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PERCENT
above two percent
|
|
for 2022 |
3.84 |
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|
|
february of 2020 |
4.08 |
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|
year over year inflation's at a 40-year |
4.08 |
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|
|
price index for all of 2021 was the |
4.24 |
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|
|
hike more than 25 basis points discussed |
4.401 |
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|
chip shortage will last into 2023. so |
4.24 |
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|
uh in the second half of this year |
4.24 |
Jump to 3037.359 |
DATE
the second half of this year
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|
they'll go more than through to uh 2023. |
5.919 |
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|
|
to 2 |
4.239 |
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|
do you want to go below 2 so that on |
6.24 |
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|
|
average you get a 2 inflation rate and |
6.0 |
Jump to 3153.119 |
|
|
below two percent |
4.16 |
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PERCENT
below two percent
|
|
well anchored at two percent that that's |
3.04 |
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|
|
inflation average two percent over time |
3.121 |
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|
and if inflation doesn't average two |
2.88 |
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|
|
anchored at two percent so that that's |
3.92 |
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|
|
potential growth is around two most |
3.839 |
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|
|
for 2022 |
4.321 |
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|
|
to two percent |
3.361 |
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|
|
no one really knows what that will take |
4.0 |
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|
|
two percent and a situation where where |
5.439 |
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|
|
the two goals or the two goals can be |
4.08 |
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|
|
it's a difficult one but but i i don't |
3.2 |
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|
|
amount in one course so there was a real |
3.12 |
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|
|
look in 25 years we'll look back at this |
5.119 |
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|
|
incident which will be a you know two |
4.72 |
Jump to 3513.839 |
|
|
three four five year period |
3.841 |
Jump to 3516.559 |
DATE
three four five year
|
|
how that looks in 25 years |
4.079 |
Jump to 3538.24 |
|
|
one thing i would say another is |
3.919 |
Jump to 3594.64 |
|
|
two to your treasury to ten year |
3.44 |
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|
|
treasury i think that's around 75 basis |
2.879 |
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|
|
telling us and it's but it's one of many |
4.72 |
Jump to 3622.16 |
|
|
you mentioned really asset prices is one |
3.041 |
Jump to 3817.839 |
|
|
of the four |
2.799 |
Jump to 3819.76 |
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|