| policy interest rate near zero | 4.4 | Jump to 51.76 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | months averaging 365 000 per month over | 5.441 | Jump to 168.959 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the past three months | 4.0 | Jump to 172.319 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        the past three months
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | has risen by 6.4 million jobs | 5.2 | Jump to 176.319 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | sharply falling two percentage points | 4.321 | Jump to 181.519 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | over the past six months | 6.0 | Jump to 183.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | to reach 3.9 percent in december | 5.759 | Jump to 185.84 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | run goal of two percent | 4.399 | Jump to 247.92 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | inflation that is well above our two | 4.401 | Jump to 362.479 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | thank you for the first question we'll | 3.84 | Jump to 504.639 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | actually two-sided risks now | 3.92 | Jump to 564.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | began raising rates in 2015. | 4.96 | Jump to 591.92 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | inflation is running well above our two | 3.04 | Jump to 600.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | over over the course of two or three | 4.08 | Jump to 920.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | would point you to principle number one | 3.761 | Jump to 962.959 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | relationship between the two for example | 5.2 | Jump to 997.92 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | reluctant to land on one of them that | 4.24 | Jump to 1023.04 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | financial conditions not one or two | 3.679 | Jump to 1121.12 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | things one or two markets and what we're | 4.321 | Jump to 1122.799 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | we're not looking at any one market or | 3.119 | Jump to 1143.44 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | expected three rate increases this year | 3.68 | Jump to 1160.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | you know it's six weeks seven weeks | 5.36 | Jump to 1164.08 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | one sort of technical question and one | 4.56 | Jump to 1417.76 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | correct that's the first thing second of | 4.081 | Jump to 1437.919 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | balance sheet is a complicated one and | 4.96 | Jump to 1493.44 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | it's time to stop asset purchases first | 4.96 | Jump to 1592.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | and my guess is we'll have at least one | 3.92 | Jump to 1647.84 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | said wrists are two-sided i'm wondering | 4.159 | Jump to 1694.0 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | and then second chappal i have a quick | 6.32 | Jump to 1705.44 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | you asked about the risks first so you | 5.281 | Jump to 1748.799 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | know the one risk is that inflation | 5.199 | Jump to 1751.36 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | different outcomes including the one | 3.601 | Jump to 1791.279 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | expansion we saw labor first | 3.039 | Jump to 1809.12 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | back down to our two percent goal | 4.799 | Jump to 1837.36 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | so i mentioned two-sided risks | 3.921 | Jump to 1839.679 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | a couple things one | 4.799 | Jump to 1843.6 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | december is a reasonable one and if | 3.039 | Jump to 1962.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | we get from here seven percent cpi to | 4.0 | Jump to 1972.159 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | raise my own estimate of 2022 | 5.76 | Jump to 1993.12 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | an impulse to growth over the last two | 3.359 | Jump to 2080.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | so that's another thing the other one is | 3.44 | Jump to 2086.32 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | inflation back down to two percent it's | 4.08 | Jump to 2126.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | larger increments and say doing a 50 | 4.48 | Jump to 2191.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 2015 16 17 18 we were raising rates | 5.92 | Jump to 2220.24 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | inflation was very close to two percent | 4.08 | Jump to 2224.4 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        close to two percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | even below two percent unemployment was | 5.199 | Jump to 2226.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the two to three percent range | 4.16 | Jump to 2234.4 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        two to three percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | substantially above two percent and and | 4.0 | Jump to 2238.56 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        above two percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | for 2022 we still see growth higher than | 5.36 | Jump to 2246.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | february of 2020 | 4.08 | Jump to 2292.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | over year inflation's at a 40-year high | 4.08 | Jump to 2463.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | index for all of 2021 was the highest on | 4.48 | Jump to 2467.76 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 25 basis points discussed today and as a | 4.4 | Jump to 2478.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the chip shortage will last into 2023 so | 4.401 | Jump to 2493.359 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | uh in the second half of this year | 2.641 | Jump to 2517.359 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        the second half of this year
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | they'll go more than through to uh 2023. | 6.0 | Jump to 2538.64 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | rates until you get inflation to 2 | 6.319 | Jump to 2626.8 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | do you want to go below 2 so that on | 5.36 | Jump to 2630.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | average you get a two percent inflation | 4.641 | Jump to 2633.119 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | below two percent | 4.081 | Jump to 2652.079 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        below two percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | well anchored at two percent that that's | 3.28 | Jump to 2664.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | average two percent over time and if | 2.961 | Jump to 2676.319 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | inflation doesn't average two percent | 3.041 | Jump to 2677.839 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | at two percent so that that's the way we | 3.44 | Jump to 2682.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | around two | 2.96 | Jump to 2719.52 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | that for 2022 | 4.4 | Jump to 2722.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | to two percent | 3.36 | Jump to 2737.44 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | no one really knows what that will take | 4.0 | Jump to 2748.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | two percent and a situation where where | 5.439 | Jump to 2766.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the two goals or the two goals can be | 4.08 | Jump to 2768.64 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | it's a difficult one but but i i don't | 3.2 | Jump to 2772.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | shocking amount in one course so there | 3.52 | Jump to 2918.64 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | and look in 25 years we'll look back at | 5.119 | Jump to 2991.2 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | two three four five year period | 4.081 | Jump to 2996.319 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | how that looks in 25 years | 4.079 | Jump to 3018.24 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | one thing i would say another is | 3.919 | Jump to 3074.64 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | two to your treasury the ten-year | 3.44 | Jump to 3080.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | treasury i think that's around 75 basis | 2.879 | Jump to 3082.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | telling us and it's but it's one of many | 4.72 | Jump to 3102.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | you mentioned really asset prices is one | 3.041 | Jump to 3297.839 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | of the four | 2.799 | Jump to 3299.76 |  |  |