policy interest rate near zero |
4.4 |
Jump to 51.76 |
|
|
months averaging 365 000 per month over |
5.441 |
Jump to 168.959 |
|
|
the past three months |
4.0 |
Jump to 172.319 |
DATE
the past three months
|
|
has risen by 6.4 million jobs |
5.2 |
Jump to 176.319 |
|
|
sharply falling two percentage points |
4.321 |
Jump to 181.519 |
|
|
over the past six months |
6.0 |
Jump to 183.68 |
|
|
to reach 3.9 percent in december |
5.759 |
Jump to 185.84 |
|
|
run goal of two percent |
4.399 |
Jump to 247.92 |
|
|
inflation that is well above our two |
4.401 |
Jump to 362.479 |
|
|
thank you for the first question we'll |
3.84 |
Jump to 504.639 |
|
|
actually two-sided risks now |
3.92 |
Jump to 564.88 |
|
|
began raising rates in 2015. |
4.96 |
Jump to 591.92 |
|
|
inflation is running well above our two |
3.04 |
Jump to 600.16 |
|
|
over over the course of two or three |
4.08 |
Jump to 920.16 |
|
|
would point you to principle number one |
3.761 |
Jump to 962.959 |
|
|
relationship between the two for example |
5.2 |
Jump to 997.92 |
|
|
reluctant to land on one of them that |
4.24 |
Jump to 1023.04 |
|
|
financial conditions not one or two |
3.679 |
Jump to 1121.12 |
|
|
things one or two markets and what we're |
4.321 |
Jump to 1122.799 |
|
|
we're not looking at any one market or |
3.119 |
Jump to 1143.44 |
|
|
expected three rate increases this year |
3.68 |
Jump to 1160.4 |
|
|
you know it's six weeks seven weeks |
5.36 |
Jump to 1164.08 |
|
|
one sort of technical question and one |
4.56 |
Jump to 1417.76 |
|
|
correct that's the first thing second of |
4.081 |
Jump to 1437.919 |
|
|
balance sheet is a complicated one and |
4.96 |
Jump to 1493.44 |
|
|
it's time to stop asset purchases first |
4.96 |
Jump to 1592.48 |
|
|
and my guess is we'll have at least one |
3.92 |
Jump to 1647.84 |
|
|
said wrists are two-sided i'm wondering |
4.159 |
Jump to 1694.0 |
|
|
and then second chappal i have a quick |
6.32 |
Jump to 1705.44 |
|
|
you asked about the risks first so you |
5.281 |
Jump to 1748.799 |
|
|
know the one risk is that inflation |
5.199 |
Jump to 1751.36 |
|
|
different outcomes including the one |
3.601 |
Jump to 1791.279 |
|
|
expansion we saw labor first |
3.039 |
Jump to 1809.12 |
|
|
back down to our two percent goal |
4.799 |
Jump to 1837.36 |
|
|
so i mentioned two-sided risks |
3.921 |
Jump to 1839.679 |
|
|
a couple things one |
4.799 |
Jump to 1843.6 |
|
|
december is a reasonable one and if |
3.039 |
Jump to 1962.48 |
|
|
we get from here seven percent cpi to |
4.0 |
Jump to 1972.159 |
|
|
raise my own estimate of 2022 |
5.76 |
Jump to 1993.12 |
|
|
an impulse to growth over the last two |
3.359 |
Jump to 2080.72 |
|
|
so that's another thing the other one is |
3.44 |
Jump to 2086.32 |
|
|
inflation back down to two percent it's |
4.08 |
Jump to 2126.48 |
|
|
larger increments and say doing a 50 |
4.48 |
Jump to 2191.68 |
|
|
2015 16 17 18 we were raising rates |
5.92 |
Jump to 2220.24 |
|
|
inflation was very close to two percent |
4.08 |
Jump to 2224.4 |
PERCENT
close to two percent
|
|
even below two percent unemployment was |
5.199 |
Jump to 2226.16 |
|
|
the two to three percent range |
4.16 |
Jump to 2234.4 |
PERCENT
two to three percent
|
|
substantially above two percent and and |
4.0 |
Jump to 2238.56 |
PERCENT
above two percent
|
|
for 2022 we still see growth higher than |
5.36 |
Jump to 2246.88 |
|
|
february of 2020 |
4.08 |
Jump to 2292.88 |
|
|
over year inflation's at a 40-year high |
4.08 |
Jump to 2463.68 |
|
|
index for all of 2021 was the highest on |
4.48 |
Jump to 2467.76 |
|
|
25 basis points discussed today and as a |
4.4 |
Jump to 2478.4 |
|
|
the chip shortage will last into 2023 so |
4.401 |
Jump to 2493.359 |
|
|
uh in the second half of this year |
2.641 |
Jump to 2517.359 |
DATE
the second half of this year
|
|
they'll go more than through to uh 2023. |
6.0 |
Jump to 2538.64 |
|
|
rates until you get inflation to 2 |
6.319 |
Jump to 2626.8 |
|
|
do you want to go below 2 so that on |
5.36 |
Jump to 2630.16 |
|
|
average you get a two percent inflation |
4.641 |
Jump to 2633.119 |
|
|
below two percent |
4.081 |
Jump to 2652.079 |
PERCENT
below two percent
|
|
well anchored at two percent that that's |
3.28 |
Jump to 2664.48 |
|
|
average two percent over time and if |
2.961 |
Jump to 2676.319 |
|
|
inflation doesn't average two percent |
3.041 |
Jump to 2677.839 |
|
|
at two percent so that that's the way we |
3.44 |
Jump to 2682.72 |
|
|
around two |
2.96 |
Jump to 2719.52 |
|
|
that for 2022 |
4.4 |
Jump to 2722.48 |
|
|
to two percent |
3.36 |
Jump to 2737.44 |
|
|
no one really knows what that will take |
4.0 |
Jump to 2748.4 |
|
|
two percent and a situation where where |
5.439 |
Jump to 2766.16 |
|
|
the two goals or the two goals can be |
4.08 |
Jump to 2768.64 |
|
|
it's a difficult one but but i i don't |
3.2 |
Jump to 2772.72 |
|
|
shocking amount in one course so there |
3.52 |
Jump to 2918.64 |
|
|
and look in 25 years we'll look back at |
5.119 |
Jump to 2991.2 |
|
|
two three four five year period |
4.081 |
Jump to 2996.319 |
|
|
how that looks in 25 years |
4.079 |
Jump to 3018.24 |
|
|
one thing i would say another is |
3.919 |
Jump to 3074.64 |
|
|
two to your treasury the ten-year |
3.44 |
Jump to 3080.96 |
|
|
treasury i think that's around 75 basis |
2.879 |
Jump to 3082.48 |
|
|
telling us and it's but it's one of many |
4.72 |
Jump to 3102.16 |
|
|
you mentioned really asset prices is one |
3.041 |
Jump to 3297.839 |
|
|
of the four |
2.799 |
Jump to 3299.76 |
|
|