| policy interest rate near zero |
4.4 |
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| months averaging 365 000 per month over |
5.441 |
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| the past three months |
4.0 |
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DATE
the past three months
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| has risen by 6.4 million jobs |
5.2 |
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| sharply falling two percentage points |
4.321 |
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| over the past six months |
6.0 |
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| to reach 3.9 percent in december |
5.759 |
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| run goal of two percent |
4.399 |
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| inflation that is well above our two |
4.401 |
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| thank you for the first question we'll |
3.84 |
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| actually two-sided risks now |
3.92 |
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| began raising rates in 2015. |
4.96 |
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| inflation is running well above our two |
3.04 |
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| over over the course of two or three |
4.08 |
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| would point you to principle number one |
3.761 |
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| relationship between the two for example |
5.2 |
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| reluctant to land on one of them that |
4.24 |
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| financial conditions not one or two |
3.679 |
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| things one or two markets and what we're |
4.321 |
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| we're not looking at any one market or |
3.119 |
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| expected three rate increases this year |
3.68 |
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| you know it's six weeks seven weeks |
5.36 |
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| one sort of technical question and one |
4.56 |
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| correct that's the first thing second of |
4.081 |
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| balance sheet is a complicated one and |
4.96 |
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| it's time to stop asset purchases first |
4.96 |
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| and my guess is we'll have at least one |
3.92 |
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| said wrists are two-sided i'm wondering |
4.159 |
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| and then second chappal i have a quick |
6.32 |
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| you asked about the risks first so you |
5.281 |
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| know the one risk is that inflation |
5.199 |
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| different outcomes including the one |
3.601 |
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| expansion we saw labor first |
3.039 |
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| back down to our two percent goal |
4.799 |
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| so i mentioned two-sided risks |
3.921 |
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| a couple things one |
4.799 |
Jump to 1843.6 |
|
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| december is a reasonable one and if |
3.039 |
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| we get from here seven percent cpi to |
4.0 |
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| raise my own estimate of 2022 |
5.76 |
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|
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| an impulse to growth over the last two |
3.359 |
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| so that's another thing the other one is |
3.44 |
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|
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| inflation back down to two percent it's |
4.08 |
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| larger increments and say doing a 50 |
4.48 |
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|
|
| 2015 16 17 18 we were raising rates |
5.92 |
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|
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| inflation was very close to two percent |
4.08 |
Jump to 2224.4 |
PERCENT
close to two percent
|
|
| even below two percent unemployment was |
5.199 |
Jump to 2226.16 |
|
|
| the two to three percent range |
4.16 |
Jump to 2234.4 |
PERCENT
two to three percent
|
|
| substantially above two percent and and |
4.0 |
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PERCENT
above two percent
|
|
| for 2022 we still see growth higher than |
5.36 |
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|
|
| february of 2020 |
4.08 |
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|
|
| over year inflation's at a 40-year high |
4.08 |
Jump to 2463.68 |
|
|
| index for all of 2021 was the highest on |
4.48 |
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|
| 25 basis points discussed today and as a |
4.4 |
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|
| the chip shortage will last into 2023 so |
4.401 |
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|
|
| uh in the second half of this year |
2.641 |
Jump to 2517.359 |
DATE
the second half of this year
|
|
| they'll go more than through to uh 2023. |
6.0 |
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|
|
| rates until you get inflation to 2 |
6.319 |
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|
|
| do you want to go below 2 so that on |
5.36 |
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|
|
| average you get a two percent inflation |
4.641 |
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|
|
| below two percent |
4.081 |
Jump to 2652.079 |
PERCENT
below two percent
|
|
| well anchored at two percent that that's |
3.28 |
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|
|
| average two percent over time and if |
2.961 |
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|
|
| inflation doesn't average two percent |
3.041 |
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|
|
| at two percent so that that's the way we |
3.44 |
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|
|
| around two |
2.96 |
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|
|
| that for 2022 |
4.4 |
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|
|
| to two percent |
3.36 |
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|
|
| no one really knows what that will take |
4.0 |
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|
|
| two percent and a situation where where |
5.439 |
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|
|
| the two goals or the two goals can be |
4.08 |
Jump to 2768.64 |
|
|
| it's a difficult one but but i i don't |
3.2 |
Jump to 2772.72 |
|
|
| shocking amount in one course so there |
3.52 |
Jump to 2918.64 |
|
|
| and look in 25 years we'll look back at |
5.119 |
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|
|
| two three four five year period |
4.081 |
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|
|
| how that looks in 25 years |
4.079 |
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|
|
| one thing i would say another is |
3.919 |
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|
|
| two to your treasury the ten-year |
3.44 |
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|
|
| treasury i think that's around 75 basis |
2.879 |
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|
|
| telling us and it's but it's one of many |
4.72 |
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|
|
| you mentioned really asset prices is one |
3.041 |
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|
|
| of the four |
2.799 |
Jump to 3299.76 |
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|