| that down 10 ish a little bit more you | 4.32 | Jump to 36.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | five to ten percent now if you look back | 4.8 | Jump to 50.16 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        five to ten percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | of move more than ten percent it ends up | 4.239 | Jump to 54.96 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        more than ten percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | being about 15 to 20 aside from the | 4.399 | Jump to 56.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | recession scenario and those 15 to 20 | 4.561 | Jump to 59.199 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | saw these in 2010 2011 2018 um and you | 5.52 | Jump to 68.24 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | about late 2018 is that there was a | 3.84 | Jump to 73.76 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | different back from 2018 but i think the | 4.08 | Jump to 82.32 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | from here but that 10 percent the market | 3.68 | Jump to 95.28 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | policy error because they're two | 3.2 | Jump to 133.84 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | risk the fed is not doing enough 29 said | 4.24 | Jump to 138.56 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | people concerned about inflation but 40 | 4.8 | Jump to 144.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | over a month ago but 40 percent told us | 3.36 | Jump to 149.28 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 40 number has increased and some of the | 4.32 | Jump to 154.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | first of all let's look very short term | 3.839 | Jump to 184.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | industrial space that is often the first | 4.321 | Jump to 222.159 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | week and next week well over 200 | 3.36 | Jump to 232.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | a second do you think that the market is | 8.239 | Jump to 251.84 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the lesson of 2018 because that was a | 3.36 | Jump to 272.0 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | first quarter than anybody anticipated | 4.48 | Jump to 316.24 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | been around 3.9 percent in terms of real | 4.801 | Jump to 334.639 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        around 3.9 percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | takeaways so far julie is number one | 4.479 | Jump to 400.0 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | this it's two years into the pandemic | 2.88 | Jump to 425.039 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | fine we actually saw one company say | 5.041 | Jump to 427.919 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | interesting to see what happens with one | 3.28 | Jump to 447.199 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | queue numbers where we've only got six | 3.599 | Jump to 448.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | that six percent number holds up and if | 3.44 | Jump to 457.759 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | as one of the more level-headed | 3.201 | Jump to 476.479 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 500 target was 50 50 and just given | 4.72 | Jump to 481.599 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | outlook of about seven percent | 4.88 | Jump to 491.759 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        about seven percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | so if you look at the 50 50 number it's | 4.079 | Jump to 494.24 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | basically a six percent return on the | 3.28 | Jump to 496.639 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | later in the year and i'll give you one | 3.359 | Jump to 536.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | it was minus 25.7 it almost got back to | 7.2 | Jump to 546.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | march 2020 lows which were around 28 29 | 5.761 | Jump to 549.279 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | minus 10 percent we're obviously far | 4.8 | Jump to 556.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | below that right now markets are up 86 | 4.799 | Jump to 558.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | of the time on a 12 month forward basis | 4.719 | Jump to 561.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | with a 15 average return and if you go | 5.76 | Jump to 563.519 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | back to 2020 we saw net bullishness just | 4.56 | Jump to 566.399 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | really in the toilet for about three | 3.281 | Jump to 569.279 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | months or about 12 weeks in a row we | 4.401 | Jump to 570.959 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | were below that 10 threshold but we got | 4.719 | Jump to 572.56 |  |  |