| but first | 2.88 | Jump to 4.08 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | correction in the first half of this | 4.0 | Jump to 29.92 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        the first half of this
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | 10 or so the s p 500 not down as much as | 4.479 | Jump to 33.92 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | of 2021 i think it took on another | 5.039 | Jump to 61.12 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | that's really part of our two stage | 4.88 | Jump to 89.04 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | some of that the second part of the | 3.36 | Jump to 109.92 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | two or three reasons for why we're a bit | 3.68 | Jump to 127.04 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | term and the first one of course is that | 4.8 | Jump to 130.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | fiscal stimulus is fading second one is | 4.08 | Jump to 133.2 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the pandemic and then the third one is | 4.32 | Jump to 139.44 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | over by the second quarter i don't know | 3.761 | Jump to 150.239 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | another 10 percent downside for the | 2.56 | Jump to 155.36 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        another 10 percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | averages still have a good 10 down from | 4.56 | Jump to 163.44 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | for a really a pretty good second half | 3.599 | Jump to 168.0 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | recovery in the second half of this year | 3.919 | Jump to 174.4 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        the second half of this year
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | numbers that we know 20 21 times is kind | 4.24 | Jump to 262.8 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | of where we're trading on forward 12 | 3.44 | Jump to 264.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | valuation metric we we think is our 18 | 3.92 | Jump to 270.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | models that tell us that 18 times is the | 3.92 | Jump to 278.32 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | way i think about it over the next six | 2.72 | Jump to 381.28 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | rates four times and you know what so | 3.6 | Jump to 386.319 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | what we see the nasdaq down about 10 | 3.68 | Jump to 388.0 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | where it was two or three months ago but | 3.84 | Jump to 412.639 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        two or three months ago
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | for a better part of 15 years has done | 4.481 | Jump to 416.479 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | than they dreamed of that's good on one | 4.641 | Jump to 447.919 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | being at 180 today or 175 it's where our | 5.521 | Jump to 464.319 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | rates going to be in five years right | 4.399 | Jump to 467.36 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 10 years and i would say the odds of | 4.16 | Jump to 478.319 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | capital being higher over the next 10 | 3.761 | Jump to 482.479 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | year-end target for the s p is 4 400. | 3.84 | Jump to 501.52 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | investable time frame call it three to | 3.28 | Jump to 530.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | five years are still going to be the | 3.28 | Jump to 531.92 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the better part of two or three years | 3.201 | Jump to 539.519 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | getting about a two percent dividend | 3.52 | Jump to 548.56 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | are paying dividend yields at three four | 3.199 | Jump to 552.08 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | five percent they're growing so that's | 3.68 | Jump to 553.36 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | right about the second half of this year | 4.32 | Jump to 574.8 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | so we just think that this one you know | 5.52 | Jump to 576.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | second half of the year can't get here | 3.439 | Jump to 592.08 |  |  |