| banner year in 2021 with the s p 500 | 5.359 | Jump to 10.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | gaining 27 percent their latest outlook | 5.2 | Jump to 13.04 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 106 times since the trough of the | 4.081 | Jump to 48.879 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 107. so we certainly realize the | 4.72 | Jump to 52.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | couple factors so the first is that | 4.561 | Jump to 61.039 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | any one-year holding period have been | 4.16 | Jump to 71.76 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | about 88 historically | 4.399 | Jump to 73.36 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | greater chance of a 10 or greater gain | 3.76 | Jump to 79.28 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | versus a 10 or greater loss so given the | 4.96 | Jump to 83.04 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 10 odds on a recession this year we | 3.759 | Jump to 88.0 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the second thing we would point out is | 2.56 | Jump to 93.36 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | equities is around six percent um | 3.839 | Jump to 105.92 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        around six percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | u.s it could be as high as nine but | 3.68 | Jump to 109.759 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | only around two percent annualized real | 4.8 | Jump to 159.92 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | overweight to energy companies s p 500 | 5.36 | Jump to 210.56 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | german 10-year bond yields are rising | 3.44 | Jump to 255.28 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | still screen as one of the most | 3.199 | Jump to 266.0 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | yields four or five percent which looks | 3.6 | Jump to 289.84 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        four or five percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | you're looking at the top five stocks | 4.0 | Jump to 342.56 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | within the s p 500 these don't | 4.319 | Jump to 344.32 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | but you know one of the main points that | 4.16 | Jump to 369.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | forecast for this year for six percent | 4.16 | Jump to 379.52 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | returns in the s p 500 to come to | 4.32 | Jump to 381.84 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | ten percent uh then we think that we | 4.32 | Jump to 388.56 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | objective are six percent objective even | 3.68 | Jump to 392.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | down five percent so the point is that | 4.56 | Jump to 396.56 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | still allow the s p 500 to generate | 3.761 | Jump to 410.319 |  |  |