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banner year in 2021 with the s p 500 5.359 Jump to 10.4
    DATE 2021
gaining 27 percent their latest outlook 5.2 Jump to 13.04
    PERCENT 27 percent
106 times since the trough of the 4.081 Jump to 48.879
    CARDINAL 106
107. so we certainly realize the 4.72 Jump to 52.96
    CARDINAL 107
couple factors so the first is that 4.561 Jump to 61.039
    ORDINAL first
any one-year holding period have been 4.16 Jump to 71.76
    DATE one-year
about 88 historically 4.399 Jump to 73.36
    CARDINAL about 88
greater chance of a 10 or greater gain 3.76 Jump to 79.28
    CARDINAL 10
versus a 10 or greater loss so given the 4.96 Jump to 83.04
    CARDINAL 10
10 odds on a recession this year we 3.759 Jump to 88.0
    CARDINAL 10
    DATE this year
the second thing we would point out is 2.56 Jump to 93.36
    ORDINAL second
equities is around six percent um 3.839 Jump to 105.92
    PERCENT around six percent
u.s it could be as high as nine but 3.68 Jump to 109.759
    CARDINAL as high as nine
only around two percent annualized real 4.8 Jump to 159.92
overweight to energy companies s p 500 5.36 Jump to 210.56
    CARDINAL 500
german 10-year bond yields are rising 3.44 Jump to 255.28
    DATE 10-year
still screen as one of the most 3.199 Jump to 266.0
yields four or five percent which looks 3.6 Jump to 289.84
    PERCENT four or five percent
you're looking at the top five stocks 4.0 Jump to 342.56
    CARDINAL five
within the s p 500 these don't 4.319 Jump to 344.32
but you know one of the main points that 4.16 Jump to 369.68
forecast for this year for six percent 4.16 Jump to 379.52
    DATE this year
    PERCENT six percent
returns in the s p 500 to come to 4.32 Jump to 381.84
ten percent uh then we think that we 4.32 Jump to 388.56
    PERCENT ten percent
objective are six percent objective even 3.68 Jump to 392.88
    PERCENT six percent
down five percent so the point is that 4.56 Jump to 396.56
    PERCENT five percent
still allow the s p 500 to generate 3.761 Jump to 410.319