| when we look at the s p 500 um it's down | 4.959 | Jump to 20.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | a little over uh one percent uh if you | 4.801 | Jump to 23.279 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | you go back three months roughly one and | 3.599 | Jump to 28.08 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        three months roughly one
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | five percent um you know drop maybe even | 5.44 | Jump to 35.2 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | i fully expect a five percent plus | 4.16 | Jump to 58.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | pullback in the first quarter i think | 3.841 | Jump to 60.879 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | in the first quarter we regain it in the | 4.24 | Jump to 75.6 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | second quarter the bigger decline comes | 3.92 | Jump to 77.6 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the third quarter we regain it in the | 3.44 | Jump to 79.84 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | fourth quarter the year is all about | 3.76 | Jump to 81.52 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        fourth quarter the year
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | similar to the refrain i heard 20 years | 5.041 | Jump to 125.119 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | ago was 21 years ago now | 4.8 | Jump to 127.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | looking at the one week to one month the | 3.68 | Jump to 136.48 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        the one week to one month
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | one quarter the one year | 3.841 | Jump to 138.319 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        one quarter the one year
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | so one bank earnings are notoriously | 5.199 | Jump to 179.04 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | back on october 28th with you guys | 4.321 | Jump to 208.239 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | begun the taper in the summer of 2020 | 5.2 | Jump to 219.36 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | just like they did in q4 of 18 when | 4.241 | Jump to 236.319 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | stock market went down 20 | 4.241 | Jump to 238.799 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | and while i don't think 20 is a decline | 5.039 | Jump to 240.56 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | in the cards for the first quarter | 4.72 | Jump to 243.04 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | is going to form a low in the first | 2.72 | Jump to 322.479 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | whether or not the the ten year gets | 3.84 | Jump to 325.199 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | above two percent we can argue it | 4.24 | Jump to 327.44 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        above two percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | any yield spike above two percent and i | 4.64 | Jump to 331.68 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        PERCENT
                      
                      
                        above two percent
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | lower the second half of the year and | 4.4 | Jump to 338.639 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        the second half of the year
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | last three quarters of the year and | 3.76 | Jump to 365.12 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        last three quarters of the year
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | millennials 55. i'm not really a yeah | 4.88 | Jump to 390.0 |  |  |