| with zero interest rates for years with | 3.761 | Jump to 89.119 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | could see at 120 billion per month | 4.239 | Jump to 92.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | at the two year in the five year the fed | 5.36 | Jump to 99.28 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | we have the highest two-year yield | 4.32 | Jump to 107.2 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | three-year yield we have basically a tie | 4.8 | Jump to 112.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | on the five-year yield and so what's | 4.4 | Jump to 115.759 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | that's the one investors really have to | 3.92 | Jump to 127.92 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | watch out for it's one thing when the | 4.001 | Jump to 129.679 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | one end of the curve is anchored and the | 3.84 | Jump to 133.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | other one either goes either goes down | 3.52 | Jump to 135.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | or this one goes up when they go like | 2.64 | Jump to 137.52 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | market cap of the s p 500 | 4.8 | Jump to 157.92 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 2020 and 21 a little bit because the the | 5.68 | Jump to 170.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | cape ratio dr schiller's cape ratio one | 5.04 | Jump to 182.8 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | elevated nearly around 35 or so if you | 4.88 | Jump to 187.84 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | that they've been in for nearly two | 3.599 | Jump to 209.36 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | one of the things that investors | 5.681 | Jump to 236.959 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | so the one that broke the economy | 4.161 | Jump to 256.239 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | back in 2018 | 5.601 | Jump to 258.239 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | was about uh two two and a half percent | 4.96 | Jump to 260.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | significantly below two | 3.921 | Jump to 272.479 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the 30-year treasury yield kissed two | 4.24 | Jump to 298.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | whenever it gets to two | 4.64 | Jump to 308.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 30-year treasury today it's gonna be | 3.44 | Jump to 313.52 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | hasn't closed above two | 3.84 | Jump to 316.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | you get a yield of like 202 | 4.72 | Jump to 324.8 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 203 lo and behold something magical | 5.201 | Jump to 326.639 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 198 and so it almost looks like there's | 5.04 | Jump to 331.84 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | which is one way of explaining | 5.12 | Jump to 336.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | uh one of the things that i | 3.76 | Jump to 353.52 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | this for about 15 years | 4.239 | Jump to 360.8 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 6.8 right now because fed funds is zero | 5.599 | Jump to 395.44 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | and the cpi is 6.8 so very negative real | 5.039 | Jump to 398.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | cpi is at 6.8 right now year over year | 4.401 | Jump to 465.759 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the one that's rolling off | 4.799 | Jump to 468.24 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | for last december is 0.2 | 4.64 | Jump to 470.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 7 handle on the cpi soon but the cpi of | 5.28 | Jump to 476.56 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | right now would be at 7.8 so it's | 5.44 | Jump to 489.759 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | that's almost a third of our cpi and | 4.801 | Jump to 498.879 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | within 20 i've no idea i've never looked | 4.961 | Jump to 527.839 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | recent reading is 3.5 year-over-year but | 5.52 | Jump to 534.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | there's another one that | 5.6 | Jump to 541.44 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | running at well they were up at 23 | 4.88 | Jump to 547.04 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | depends which one you look at but maybe | 3.76 | Jump to 551.92 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | they're only at like 13. but even so | 4.801 | Jump to 553.279 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | it's like 10 full percentage points | 4.08 | Jump to 555.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the cpi right now would be uh over 12 | 3.36 | Jump to 581.44 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | gap between those two home price | 4.24 | Jump to 587.36 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | around 2004 in terms of affordability | 4.081 | Jump to 633.279 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | of coming out two years ago now | 4.119 | Jump to 668.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 2021 we had ppi above 0.5 every single | 4.841 | Jump to 672.839 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | finished goods one of them's running at | 5.36 | Jump to 685.2 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | about 9.6 other ones running one of them | 5.44 | Jump to 687.36 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | is up at 26. | 4.64 | Jump to 690.56 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | cpi is coming down in the next three | 4.0 | Jump to 706.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | down to two percent in 2023 roughly | 6.16 | Jump to 710.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | a recession in 2023 yeah again as i said | 5.28 | Jump to 732.32 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | that by 2023 it seems pretty likely and | 7.12 | Jump to 739.839 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | four times | 3.76 | Jump to 758.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | certainly a non-zero probability that | 3.52 | Jump to 769.2 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | of 2022. | 3.119 | Jump to 772.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | and the like so uh one thing that we did | 5.44 | Jump to 777.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | notice in 2018 is the fed | 3.679 | Jump to 780.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | instantaneous bear market that was one | 4.96 | Jump to 793.2 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | when you compare it to 2020 it was | 4.24 | Jump to 799.839 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | certain indices fell 35 | 3.76 | Jump to 806.0 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | back in 2018 because it's the | 2.96 | Jump to 809.76 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | we were at 20 of gdp | 4.479 | Jump to 847.92 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | and now it's all it's only 15 | 5.44 | Jump to 854.399 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | one of these inflationary signs that i | 3.84 | Jump to 866.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 2022 is the michigan consumer confidence | 6.24 | Jump to 870.56 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | are two components | 4.641 | Jump to 923.839 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | one is is this a good time to buy a car | 4.96 | Jump to 925.6 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | on the radio this morning it's twenty | 3.359 | Jump to 937.04 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | nine thousand dollars | 4.239 | Jump to 938.72 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        MONEY
                      
                      
                        nine thousand dollars
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | the price was shocking it only 8 000 | 5.68 | Jump to 965.279 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | miles on it but it was maybe 5 000 | 7.121 | Jump to 967.759 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | less than the msrp on a new one so uh | 5.361 | Jump to 970.959 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | in 2022 is do you want to be a value | 5.04 | Jump to 997.44 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | there's there's good breadth but one of | 4.479 | Jump to 1016.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | if you started a year into 2019 so you | 6.08 | Jump to 1020.959 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | take a two-year view the s p is up about | 5.52 | Jump to 1024.319 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 30 percent it feels like more because | 5.441 | Jump to 1027.039 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | people remember from the bottom in 2020 | 5.6 | Jump to 1029.839 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | first part of that two-year period but | 5.201 | Jump to 1035.439 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the s p's up 30 if you take out the five | 6.0 | Jump to 1037.6 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 500 the s p 495 without those five | 5.601 | Jump to 1050.559 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | zero zero | 4.0 | Jump to 1057.52 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 500 with all this going on but not | 4.56 | Jump to 1069.28 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | for about the last year and a third so a | 4.24 | Jump to 1078.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | were on a one-way ride the u.s stock | 4.72 | Jump to 1083.12 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | one-way ride for 10 years that ride has | 4.16 | Jump to 1087.84 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | than it was in august of of 2020. | 5.439 | Jump to 1095.36 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | at some point in 2022 i think you're | 4.241 | Jump to 1119.039 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | going to be 2060. and then it was 2050 | 5.441 | Jump to 1176.559 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | and that was 2040 and that was 2030 and | 5.12 | Jump to 1179.2 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | now i think it's before 2030. and in | 4.4 | Jump to 1182.0 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 2060. same thing pulled forward pull | 4.0 | Jump to 1188.799 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | is going to be the one that is | 4.161 | Jump to 1280.799 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | versus our twin deficits one of my most | 5.839 | Jump to 1295.2 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | eight-year cycle | 3.841 | Jump to 1312.559 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | but the dollar peaked out in 2017 | 4.8 | Jump to 1313.84 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | january 2017 on the dixie index at about | 5.04 | Jump to 1316.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 103 and it managed to double top | 4.24 | Jump to 1318.64 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | pandemic but it's down at 96 now which | 5.2 | Jump to 1322.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | isn't very low but it's it's six or | 4.559 | Jump to 1325.6 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | seven percentage points off its highs | 5.52 | Jump to 1328.08 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | but it hung in there during 2021 largely | 6.081 | Jump to 1330.159 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | been at 96 for quite a while and when it | 3.679 | Jump to 1338.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | gets low it goes down to 90 and that's | 3.28 | Jump to 1340.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | where it started 2021 here we're | 4.0 | Jump to 1342.559 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | starting at 96. | 4.16 | Jump to 1344.24 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | early in 2021 i bought european stocks | 5.44 | Jump to 1397.28 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | for the first time in the history of | 3.52 | Jump to 1400.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | double line which we're now in our 13th | 2.56 | Jump to 1402.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | working working like every year for 10 | 4.4 | Jump to 1413.84 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | zero emerging market equities this whole | 2.72 | Jump to 1446.64 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | risk at some point over the next 18 to | 3.92 | Jump to 1458.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 24 months whenever that might happen can | 3.759 | Jump to 1460.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | low as like 4 000 or something is that | 5.44 | Jump to 1475.2 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | possible my am i one year off here but | 5.041 | Jump to 1477.919 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | peaked out and it's double topped at 65 | 5.919 | Jump to 1491.76 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 000 or so it actually put in a minor new | 4.4 | Jump to 1494.32 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | i think now it's about 45 000 so about | 5.201 | Jump to 1519.279 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 20 000 off the highs | 5.12 | Jump to 1521.84 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | maybe you should buy it at 25 000. have | 3.839 | Jump to 1526.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | zero or double zero and it's it's you | 4.56 | Jump to 1591.2 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | double zero and and you're busted and i | 4.401 | Jump to 1597.679 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | at i don't know what the first price was | 4.0 | Jump to 1631.6 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | but a lot of people got in a thousand | 3.28 | Jump to 1633.6 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 60 000. the nft thing went from | 7.84 | Jump to 1639.52 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | worthless to what 69 million 96 million | 6.8 | Jump to 1642.96 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        CARDINAL
                      
                      
                        69 million 96 million
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | to it's worth 70 million and so uh | 4.961 | Jump to 1651.919 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | would i i don't i've seen one nft thing | 5.52 | Jump to 1696.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | and i've seen like two | 4.479 | Jump to 1719.2 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | when it comes to video art is that five | 4.721 | Jump to 1728.159 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | there's so much video art that five | 3.679 | Jump to 1732.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | minutes five minutes later you can't | 4.0 | Jump to 1734.24 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        TIME
                      
                      
                        minutes five minutes later
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | about three of them now | 3.439 | Jump to 1738.24 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | and if they say they can't remember one | 3.599 | Jump to 1750.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | democrat one party rule | 3.679 | Jump to 1790.24 |  |  |