with zero interest rates for years with |
3.761 |
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could see at 120 billion per month |
4.239 |
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at the two year in the five year the fed |
5.36 |
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we have the highest two-year yield |
4.32 |
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three-year yield we have basically a tie |
4.8 |
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on the five-year yield and so what's |
4.4 |
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that's the one investors really have to |
3.92 |
Jump to 127.92 |
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watch out for it's one thing when the |
4.001 |
Jump to 129.679 |
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one end of the curve is anchored and the |
3.84 |
Jump to 133.68 |
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other one either goes either goes down |
3.52 |
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or this one goes up when they go like |
2.64 |
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market cap of the s p 500 |
4.8 |
Jump to 157.92 |
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2020 and 21 a little bit because the the |
5.68 |
Jump to 170.4 |
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cape ratio dr schiller's cape ratio one |
5.04 |
Jump to 182.8 |
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elevated nearly around 35 or so if you |
4.88 |
Jump to 187.84 |
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that they've been in for nearly two |
3.599 |
Jump to 209.36 |
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one of the things that investors |
5.681 |
Jump to 236.959 |
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so the one that broke the economy |
4.161 |
Jump to 256.239 |
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back in 2018 |
5.601 |
Jump to 258.239 |
|
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was about uh two two and a half percent |
4.96 |
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|
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significantly below two |
3.921 |
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the 30-year treasury yield kissed two |
4.24 |
Jump to 298.88 |
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whenever it gets to two |
4.64 |
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30-year treasury today it's gonna be |
3.44 |
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hasn't closed above two |
3.84 |
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you get a yield of like 202 |
4.72 |
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203 lo and behold something magical |
5.201 |
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198 and so it almost looks like there's |
5.04 |
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which is one way of explaining |
5.12 |
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uh one of the things that i |
3.76 |
Jump to 353.52 |
|
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this for about 15 years |
4.239 |
Jump to 360.8 |
|
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6.8 right now because fed funds is zero |
5.599 |
Jump to 395.44 |
|
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and the cpi is 6.8 so very negative real |
5.039 |
Jump to 398.16 |
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cpi is at 6.8 right now year over year |
4.401 |
Jump to 465.759 |
|
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the one that's rolling off |
4.799 |
Jump to 468.24 |
|
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for last december is 0.2 |
4.64 |
Jump to 470.16 |
|
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7 handle on the cpi soon but the cpi of |
5.28 |
Jump to 476.56 |
|
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right now would be at 7.8 so it's |
5.44 |
Jump to 489.759 |
|
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that's almost a third of our cpi and |
4.801 |
Jump to 498.879 |
|
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within 20 i've no idea i've never looked |
4.961 |
Jump to 527.839 |
|
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recent reading is 3.5 year-over-year but |
5.52 |
Jump to 534.48 |
|
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there's another one that |
5.6 |
Jump to 541.44 |
|
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running at well they were up at 23 |
4.88 |
Jump to 547.04 |
|
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depends which one you look at but maybe |
3.76 |
Jump to 551.92 |
|
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they're only at like 13. but even so |
4.801 |
Jump to 553.279 |
|
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it's like 10 full percentage points |
4.08 |
Jump to 555.68 |
|
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the cpi right now would be uh over 12 |
3.36 |
Jump to 581.44 |
|
|
gap between those two home price |
4.24 |
Jump to 587.36 |
|
|
around 2004 in terms of affordability |
4.081 |
Jump to 633.279 |
|
|
of coming out two years ago now |
4.119 |
Jump to 668.72 |
|
|
2021 we had ppi above 0.5 every single |
4.841 |
Jump to 672.839 |
|
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finished goods one of them's running at |
5.36 |
Jump to 685.2 |
|
|
about 9.6 other ones running one of them |
5.44 |
Jump to 687.36 |
|
|
is up at 26. |
4.64 |
Jump to 690.56 |
|
|
cpi is coming down in the next three |
4.0 |
Jump to 706.88 |
|
|
down to two percent in 2023 roughly |
6.16 |
Jump to 710.88 |
|
|
a recession in 2023 yeah again as i said |
5.28 |
Jump to 732.32 |
|
|
that by 2023 it seems pretty likely and |
7.12 |
Jump to 739.839 |
|
|
four times |
3.76 |
Jump to 758.72 |
|
|
certainly a non-zero probability that |
3.52 |
Jump to 769.2 |
|
|
of 2022. |
3.119 |
Jump to 772.72 |
|
|
and the like so uh one thing that we did |
5.44 |
Jump to 777.68 |
|
|
notice in 2018 is the fed |
3.679 |
Jump to 780.72 |
|
|
instantaneous bear market that was one |
4.96 |
Jump to 793.2 |
|
|
when you compare it to 2020 it was |
4.24 |
Jump to 799.839 |
|
|
certain indices fell 35 |
3.76 |
Jump to 806.0 |
|
|
back in 2018 because it's the |
2.96 |
Jump to 809.76 |
|
|
we were at 20 of gdp |
4.479 |
Jump to 847.92 |
|
|
and now it's all it's only 15 |
5.44 |
Jump to 854.399 |
|
|
one of these inflationary signs that i |
3.84 |
Jump to 866.72 |
|
|
2022 is the michigan consumer confidence |
6.24 |
Jump to 870.56 |
|
|
are two components |
4.641 |
Jump to 923.839 |
|
|
one is is this a good time to buy a car |
4.96 |
Jump to 925.6 |
|
|
on the radio this morning it's twenty |
3.359 |
Jump to 937.04 |
|
|
nine thousand dollars |
4.239 |
Jump to 938.72 |
MONEY
nine thousand dollars
|
|
the price was shocking it only 8 000 |
5.68 |
Jump to 965.279 |
|
|
miles on it but it was maybe 5 000 |
7.121 |
Jump to 967.759 |
|
|
less than the msrp on a new one so uh |
5.361 |
Jump to 970.959 |
|
|
in 2022 is do you want to be a value |
5.04 |
Jump to 997.44 |
|
|
there's there's good breadth but one of |
4.479 |
Jump to 1016.48 |
|
|
if you started a year into 2019 so you |
6.08 |
Jump to 1020.959 |
|
|
take a two-year view the s p is up about |
5.52 |
Jump to 1024.319 |
|
|
30 percent it feels like more because |
5.441 |
Jump to 1027.039 |
|
|
people remember from the bottom in 2020 |
5.6 |
Jump to 1029.839 |
|
|
first part of that two-year period but |
5.201 |
Jump to 1035.439 |
|
|
the s p's up 30 if you take out the five |
6.0 |
Jump to 1037.6 |
|
|
500 the s p 495 without those five |
5.601 |
Jump to 1050.559 |
|
|
zero zero |
4.0 |
Jump to 1057.52 |
|
|
500 with all this going on but not |
4.56 |
Jump to 1069.28 |
|
|
for about the last year and a third so a |
4.24 |
Jump to 1078.88 |
|
|
were on a one-way ride the u.s stock |
4.72 |
Jump to 1083.12 |
|
|
one-way ride for 10 years that ride has |
4.16 |
Jump to 1087.84 |
|
|
than it was in august of of 2020. |
5.439 |
Jump to 1095.36 |
|
|
at some point in 2022 i think you're |
4.241 |
Jump to 1119.039 |
|
|
going to be 2060. and then it was 2050 |
5.441 |
Jump to 1176.559 |
|
|
and that was 2040 and that was 2030 and |
5.12 |
Jump to 1179.2 |
|
|
now i think it's before 2030. and in |
4.4 |
Jump to 1182.0 |
|
|
2060. same thing pulled forward pull |
4.0 |
Jump to 1188.799 |
|
|
is going to be the one that is |
4.161 |
Jump to 1280.799 |
|
|
versus our twin deficits one of my most |
5.839 |
Jump to 1295.2 |
|
|
eight-year cycle |
3.841 |
Jump to 1312.559 |
|
|
but the dollar peaked out in 2017 |
4.8 |
Jump to 1313.84 |
|
|
january 2017 on the dixie index at about |
5.04 |
Jump to 1316.4 |
|
|
103 and it managed to double top |
4.24 |
Jump to 1318.64 |
|
|
pandemic but it's down at 96 now which |
5.2 |
Jump to 1322.88 |
|
|
isn't very low but it's it's six or |
4.559 |
Jump to 1325.6 |
|
|
seven percentage points off its highs |
5.52 |
Jump to 1328.08 |
|
|
but it hung in there during 2021 largely |
6.081 |
Jump to 1330.159 |
|
|
been at 96 for quite a while and when it |
3.679 |
Jump to 1338.88 |
|
|
gets low it goes down to 90 and that's |
3.28 |
Jump to 1340.96 |
|
|
where it started 2021 here we're |
4.0 |
Jump to 1342.559 |
|
|
starting at 96. |
4.16 |
Jump to 1344.24 |
|
|
early in 2021 i bought european stocks |
5.44 |
Jump to 1397.28 |
|
|
for the first time in the history of |
3.52 |
Jump to 1400.88 |
|
|
double line which we're now in our 13th |
2.56 |
Jump to 1402.72 |
|
|
working working like every year for 10 |
4.4 |
Jump to 1413.84 |
|
|
zero emerging market equities this whole |
2.72 |
Jump to 1446.64 |
|
|
risk at some point over the next 18 to |
3.92 |
Jump to 1458.48 |
|
|
24 months whenever that might happen can |
3.759 |
Jump to 1460.4 |
|
|
low as like 4 000 or something is that |
5.44 |
Jump to 1475.2 |
|
|
possible my am i one year off here but |
5.041 |
Jump to 1477.919 |
|
|
peaked out and it's double topped at 65 |
5.919 |
Jump to 1491.76 |
|
|
000 or so it actually put in a minor new |
4.4 |
Jump to 1494.32 |
|
|
i think now it's about 45 000 so about |
5.201 |
Jump to 1519.279 |
|
|
20 000 off the highs |
5.12 |
Jump to 1521.84 |
|
|
maybe you should buy it at 25 000. have |
3.839 |
Jump to 1526.96 |
|
|
zero or double zero and it's it's you |
4.56 |
Jump to 1591.2 |
|
|
double zero and and you're busted and i |
4.401 |
Jump to 1597.679 |
|
|
at i don't know what the first price was |
4.0 |
Jump to 1631.6 |
|
|
but a lot of people got in a thousand |
3.28 |
Jump to 1633.6 |
|
|
60 000. the nft thing went from |
7.84 |
Jump to 1639.52 |
|
|
worthless to what 69 million 96 million |
6.8 |
Jump to 1642.96 |
CARDINAL
69 million 96 million
|
|
to it's worth 70 million and so uh |
4.961 |
Jump to 1651.919 |
|
|
would i i don't i've seen one nft thing |
5.52 |
Jump to 1696.48 |
|
|
and i've seen like two |
4.479 |
Jump to 1719.2 |
|
|
when it comes to video art is that five |
4.721 |
Jump to 1728.159 |
|
|
there's so much video art that five |
3.679 |
Jump to 1732.88 |
|
|
minutes five minutes later you can't |
4.0 |
Jump to 1734.24 |
TIME
minutes five minutes later
|
|
about three of them now |
3.439 |
Jump to 1738.24 |
|
|
and if they say they can't remember one |
3.599 |
Jump to 1750.96 |
|
|
democrat one party rule |
3.679 |
Jump to 1790.24 |
|
|