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Text duration start ents sentiment
with zero interest rates for years with 3.761 Jump to 89.119
    CARDINAL zero
    DATE years
could see at 120 billion per month 4.239 Jump to 92.88
    MONEY 120 billion
at the two year in the five year the fed 5.36 Jump to 99.28
    DATE the two year
    DATE the five year
we have the highest two-year yield 4.32 Jump to 107.2
    DATE two-year
three-year yield we have basically a tie 4.8 Jump to 112.88
    DATE three-year
on the five-year yield and so what's 4.4 Jump to 115.759
    DATE five-year
that's the one investors really have to 3.92 Jump to 127.92
    CARDINAL one
watch out for it's one thing when the 4.001 Jump to 129.679
    CARDINAL one
one end of the curve is anchored and the 3.84 Jump to 133.68
other one either goes either goes down 3.52 Jump to 135.68
or this one goes up when they go like 2.64 Jump to 137.52
market cap of the s p 500 4.8 Jump to 157.92
2020 and 21 a little bit because the the 5.68 Jump to 170.4
    DATE 2020
    CARDINAL 21
cape ratio dr schiller's cape ratio one 5.04 Jump to 182.8
    CARDINAL one
elevated nearly around 35 or so if you 4.88 Jump to 187.84
that they've been in for nearly two 3.599 Jump to 209.36
one of the things that investors 5.681 Jump to 236.959
    CARDINAL one
so the one that broke the economy 4.161 Jump to 256.239
back in 2018 5.601 Jump to 258.239
    DATE 2018
was about uh two two and a half percent 4.96 Jump to 260.4
significantly below two 3.921 Jump to 272.479
    CARDINAL two
the 30-year treasury yield kissed two 4.24 Jump to 298.88
    DATE 30-year
    CARDINAL two
whenever it gets to two 4.64 Jump to 308.88
    CARDINAL two
30-year treasury today it's gonna be 3.44 Jump to 313.52
    DATE 30-year
    DATE today
hasn't closed above two 3.84 Jump to 316.96
    CARDINAL two
you get a yield of like 202 4.72 Jump to 324.8
    CARDINAL 202
203 lo and behold something magical 5.201 Jump to 326.639
    CARDINAL 203
198 and so it almost looks like there's 5.04 Jump to 331.84
    CARDINAL 198
which is one way of explaining 5.12 Jump to 336.88
    CARDINAL one
uh one of the things that i 3.76 Jump to 353.52
this for about 15 years 4.239 Jump to 360.8
    DATE about 15 years
6.8 right now because fed funds is zero 5.599 Jump to 395.44
    CARDINAL 6.8
    CARDINAL zero
and the cpi is 6.8 so very negative real 5.039 Jump to 398.16
    CARDINAL 6.8
cpi is at 6.8 right now year over year 4.401 Jump to 465.759
    CARDINAL 6.8
the one that's rolling off 4.799 Jump to 468.24
for last december is 0.2 4.64 Jump to 470.16
    DATE last december
    CARDINAL 0.2
7 handle on the cpi soon but the cpi of 5.28 Jump to 476.56
    CARDINAL 7
right now would be at 7.8 so it's 5.44 Jump to 489.759
    CARDINAL 7.8
that's almost a third of our cpi and 4.801 Jump to 498.879
    CARDINAL almost a third
within 20 i've no idea i've never looked 4.961 Jump to 527.839
    CARDINAL 20
recent reading is 3.5 year-over-year but 5.52 Jump to 534.48
    DATE 3.5 year-over-year
there's another one that 5.6 Jump to 541.44
running at well they were up at 23 4.88 Jump to 547.04
    CARDINAL 23
depends which one you look at but maybe 3.76 Jump to 551.92
they're only at like 13. but even so 4.801 Jump to 553.279
    CARDINAL 13
it's like 10 full percentage points 4.08 Jump to 555.68
    CARDINAL 10
the cpi right now would be uh over 12 3.36 Jump to 581.44
    CARDINAL 12
gap between those two home price 4.24 Jump to 587.36
    CARDINAL two
around 2004 in terms of affordability 4.081 Jump to 633.279
of coming out two years ago now 4.119 Jump to 668.72
    DATE two years ago
2021 we had ppi above 0.5 every single 4.841 Jump to 672.839
    DATE 2021
    CARDINAL 0.5
finished goods one of them's running at 5.36 Jump to 685.2
    CARDINAL one
about 9.6 other ones running one of them 5.44 Jump to 687.36
    CARDINAL about 9.6
    CARDINAL one
is up at 26. 4.64 Jump to 690.56
    CARDINAL 26
cpi is coming down in the next three 4.0 Jump to 706.88
    DATE the next three
down to two percent in 2023 roughly 6.16 Jump to 710.88
    PERCENT two percent
    DATE 2023
a recession in 2023 yeah again as i said 5.28 Jump to 732.32
    DATE 2023
that by 2023 it seems pretty likely and 7.12 Jump to 739.839
    DATE 2023
four times 3.76 Jump to 758.72
    CARDINAL four
certainly a non-zero probability that 3.52 Jump to 769.2
    CARDINAL non-zero
of 2022. 3.119 Jump to 772.72
    DATE 2022
and the like so uh one thing that we did 5.44 Jump to 777.68
    CARDINAL one
notice in 2018 is the fed 3.679 Jump to 780.72
    DATE 2018
instantaneous bear market that was one 4.96 Jump to 793.2
when you compare it to 2020 it was 4.24 Jump to 799.839
    DATE 2020
certain indices fell 35 3.76 Jump to 806.0
    CARDINAL 35
back in 2018 because it's the 2.96 Jump to 809.76
    DATE 2018
we were at 20 of gdp 4.479 Jump to 847.92
    CARDINAL 20
and now it's all it's only 15 5.44 Jump to 854.399
one of these inflationary signs that i 3.84 Jump to 866.72
    CARDINAL one
2022 is the michigan consumer confidence 6.24 Jump to 870.56
are two components 4.641 Jump to 923.839
    CARDINAL two
one is is this a good time to buy a car 4.96 Jump to 925.6
on the radio this morning it's twenty 3.359 Jump to 937.04
    TIME this morning
    CARDINAL twenty
nine thousand dollars 4.239 Jump to 938.72
    MONEY nine thousand dollars
the price was shocking it only 8 000 5.68 Jump to 965.279
    CARDINAL only 8 000
miles on it but it was maybe 5 000 7.121 Jump to 967.759
    CARDINAL 5 000
less than the msrp on a new one so uh 5.361 Jump to 970.959
in 2022 is do you want to be a value 5.04 Jump to 997.44
    DATE 2022
there's there's good breadth but one of 4.479 Jump to 1016.48
    CARDINAL one
if you started a year into 2019 so you 6.08 Jump to 1020.959
    DATE a year
    DATE 2019
take a two-year view the s p is up about 5.52 Jump to 1024.319
    DATE two-year
30 percent it feels like more because 5.441 Jump to 1027.039
    PERCENT 30 percent
people remember from the bottom in 2020 5.6 Jump to 1029.839
    DATE 2020
first part of that two-year period but 5.201 Jump to 1035.439
    ORDINAL first
    DATE two-year
the s p's up 30 if you take out the five 6.0 Jump to 1037.6
    CARDINAL 30
    CARDINAL five
500 the s p 495 without those five 5.601 Jump to 1050.559
    CARDINAL 500
    CARDINAL 495
    CARDINAL five
zero zero 4.0 Jump to 1057.52
    CARDINAL zero zero
500 with all this going on but not 4.56 Jump to 1069.28
    CARDINAL 500
for about the last year and a third so a 4.24 Jump to 1078.88
    DATE about the last year
    ORDINAL third
were on a one-way ride the u.s stock 4.72 Jump to 1083.12
    CARDINAL one
    PERSON u.s
one-way ride for 10 years that ride has 4.16 Jump to 1087.84
    CARDINAL one
    DATE 10 years
than it was in august of of 2020. 5.439 Jump to 1095.36
    DATE 2020
at some point in 2022 i think you're 4.241 Jump to 1119.039
    DATE 2022
going to be 2060. and then it was 2050 5.441 Jump to 1176.559
    DATE 2060
    DATE 2050
and that was 2040 and that was 2030 and 5.12 Jump to 1179.2
    DATE 2040
    DATE 2030
now i think it's before 2030. and in 4.4 Jump to 1182.0
    DATE 2030
2060. same thing pulled forward pull 4.0 Jump to 1188.799
    DATE 2060
is going to be the one that is 4.161 Jump to 1280.799
versus our twin deficits one of my most 5.839 Jump to 1295.2
eight-year cycle 3.841 Jump to 1312.559
    DATE eight-year
but the dollar peaked out in 2017 4.8 Jump to 1313.84
    DATE 2017
january 2017 on the dixie index at about 5.04 Jump to 1316.4
    DATE january 2017
103 and it managed to double top 4.24 Jump to 1318.64
    CARDINAL 103
pandemic but it's down at 96 now which 5.2 Jump to 1322.88
    CARDINAL 96
isn't very low but it's it's six or 4.559 Jump to 1325.6
    CARDINAL six
seven percentage points off its highs 5.52 Jump to 1328.08
    CARDINAL seven
but it hung in there during 2021 largely 6.081 Jump to 1330.159
    DATE 2021
been at 96 for quite a while and when it 3.679 Jump to 1338.88
    CARDINAL 96
gets low it goes down to 90 and that's 3.28 Jump to 1340.96
    CARDINAL 90
where it started 2021 here we're 4.0 Jump to 1342.559
    DATE 2021
starting at 96. 4.16 Jump to 1344.24
    CARDINAL 96
early in 2021 i bought european stocks 5.44 Jump to 1397.28
    DATE 2021
for the first time in the history of 3.52 Jump to 1400.88
    ORDINAL first
double line which we're now in our 13th 2.56 Jump to 1402.72
working working like every year for 10 4.4 Jump to 1413.84
    CARDINAL 10
zero emerging market equities this whole 2.72 Jump to 1446.64
    CARDINAL zero
risk at some point over the next 18 to 3.92 Jump to 1458.48
    DATE the next 18
24 months whenever that might happen can 3.759 Jump to 1460.4
    DATE 24 months
low as like 4 000 or something is that 5.44 Jump to 1475.2
possible my am i one year off here but 5.041 Jump to 1477.919
    DATE one year
peaked out and it's double topped at 65 5.919 Jump to 1491.76
    CARDINAL 65
000 or so it actually put in a minor new 4.4 Jump to 1494.32
    CARDINAL 000
i think now it's about 45 000 so about 5.201 Jump to 1519.279
    CARDINAL about 45 000
20 000 off the highs 5.12 Jump to 1521.84
    CARDINAL 20
maybe you should buy it at 25 000. have 3.839 Jump to 1526.96
    CARDINAL 25
zero or double zero and it's it's you 4.56 Jump to 1591.2
    CARDINAL zero
    CARDINAL zero
double zero and and you're busted and i 4.401 Jump to 1597.679
    CARDINAL zero
at i don't know what the first price was 4.0 Jump to 1631.6
    ORDINAL first
but a lot of people got in a thousand 3.28 Jump to 1633.6
60 000. the nft thing went from 7.84 Jump to 1639.52
worthless to what 69 million 96 million 6.8 Jump to 1642.96
    CARDINAL 69 million 96 million
to it's worth 70 million and so uh 4.961 Jump to 1651.919
    CARDINAL 70 million
would i i don't i've seen one nft thing 5.52 Jump to 1696.48
and i've seen like two 4.479 Jump to 1719.2
    CARDINAL two
when it comes to video art is that five 4.721 Jump to 1728.159
    CARDINAL five
there's so much video art that five 3.679 Jump to 1732.88
    CARDINAL five
minutes five minutes later you can't 4.0 Jump to 1734.24
    TIME minutes five minutes later
about three of them now 3.439 Jump to 1738.24
    CARDINAL about three
and if they say they can't remember one 3.599 Jump to 1750.96
democrat one party rule 3.679 Jump to 1790.24
    NORP democrat
    CARDINAL one