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welcome back it is a first trading day 5.201 Jump to 2.399
    ORDINAL first
of 2022 we have markets up in the free 4.64 Jump to 4.64
    DATE 2022
one of the most durable factors uh when 3.28 Jump to 50.32
    CARDINAL one
and 2000s combined those two decades 3.919 Jump to 58.32
    DATE 2000s
    DATE two decades
you pick any 12-month period in history 4.08 Jump to 72.32
    DATE 12-month
any 12-month period stock markets are 4.32 Jump to 74.159
    DATE 12-month
positive about 73 of the time and that's 4.719 Jump to 76.4
    CARDINAL about 73
think you know three out of four right 3.52 Jump to 82.4
    CARDINAL three
    CARDINAL four
than just 12 months but for for my 3.12 Jump to 90.4
    DATE just 12 months
think through the first six months of 2.72 Jump to 95.28
    DATE the first six months
why do we arbitrarily pick these 365 5.6 Jump to 101.68
    CARDINAL 365
there is one thing that maybe could put 3.841 Jump to 109.119
necessarily bad for stocks you know one 4.08 Jump to 135.36
market's positive 78 of the time so a 4.0 Jump to 139.44
    CARDINAL 78
little bit more than any average 12 3.76 Jump to 141.92
    CARDINAL 12
around 10 because obviously they hike 3.919 Jump to 145.68
fastest hiking cycles 87 was one of them 4.88 Jump to 153.04
    CARDINAL 87
    CARDINAL one
we don't want to just take one thing and 3.28 Jump to 176.72
    CARDINAL one
the fed possibly caught behind the eight 4.24 Jump to 219.12
    CARDINAL eight
that at the end of 2018 so i think they 4.161 Jump to 240.959
    DATE the end of 2018
hike whether they do two or three this 3.12 Jump to 255.2
    CARDINAL two or three
year i would probably link to two i've 2.88 Jump to 256.639
    CARDINAL two
those probabilities up uh and you're 80 4.72 Jump to 272.0
90 for a hike or a cut the market almost 4.159 Jump to 274.32
    CARDINAL 90
well this next 365 day period you know 3.84 Jump to 290.96
    DATE this next 365 day
say that one of my themes for this year 2.641 Jump to 313.919
    DATE this year
223 right now so julie and jared all we 5.119 Jump to 318.08
    CARDINAL 223
need to do is get to about 236 237 and 4.801 Jump to 320.639
    CARDINAL about 236 237
5000 which i do think we see at some 4.0 Jump to 325.44
    CARDINAL 5000
i'm excited for 2022 but remember it's 4.079 Jump to 349.68
    DATE 2022
just 365 days you need to be thinking 3.921 Jump to 351.919
    DATE just 365 days
longer than just just 12 months my 4.16 Jump to 353.759