| welcome back it is a first trading day | 5.201 | Jump to 2.399 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | of 2022 we have markets up in the free | 4.64 | Jump to 4.64 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | one of the most durable factors uh when | 3.28 | Jump to 50.32 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | and 2000s combined those two decades | 3.919 | Jump to 58.32 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | you pick any 12-month period in history | 4.08 | Jump to 72.32 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | any 12-month period stock markets are | 4.32 | Jump to 74.159 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | positive about 73 of the time and that's | 4.719 | Jump to 76.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | think you know three out of four right | 3.52 | Jump to 82.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | than just 12 months but for for my | 3.12 | Jump to 90.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | think through the first six months of | 2.72 | Jump to 95.28 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        the first six months
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | why do we arbitrarily pick these 365 | 5.6 | Jump to 101.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | there is one thing that maybe could put | 3.841 | Jump to 109.119 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | necessarily bad for stocks you know one | 4.08 | Jump to 135.36 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | market's positive 78 of the time so a | 4.0 | Jump to 139.44 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | little bit more than any average 12 | 3.76 | Jump to 141.92 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | around 10 because obviously they hike | 3.919 | Jump to 145.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | fastest hiking cycles 87 was one of them | 4.88 | Jump to 153.04 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | we don't want to just take one thing and | 3.28 | Jump to 176.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the fed possibly caught behind the eight | 4.24 | Jump to 219.12 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | that at the end of 2018 so i think they | 4.161 | Jump to 240.959 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | hike whether they do two or three this | 3.12 | Jump to 255.2 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | year i would probably link to two i've | 2.88 | Jump to 256.639 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | those probabilities up uh and you're 80 | 4.72 | Jump to 272.0 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 90 for a hike or a cut the market almost | 4.159 | Jump to 274.32 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | well this next 365 day period you know | 3.84 | Jump to 290.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | say that one of my themes for this year | 2.641 | Jump to 313.919 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 223 right now so julie and jared all we | 5.119 | Jump to 318.08 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | need to do is get to about 236 237 and | 4.801 | Jump to 320.639 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 5000 which i do think we see at some | 4.0 | Jump to 325.44 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | i'm excited for 2022 but remember it's | 4.079 | Jump to 349.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | just 365 days you need to be thinking | 3.921 | Jump to 351.919 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | longer than just just 12 months my | 4.16 | Jump to 353.759 |  |  |