| the industry uh is one hot mess right | 5.439 | Jump to 6.24 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | now uh how messy do you think the fourth | 5.12 | Jump to 8.88 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | quarters and the first quarters will be | 4.801 | Jump to 11.679 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | first of all brian thank you for your | 3.28 | Jump to 16.48 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | this morning um so i think the fourth | 5.2 | Jump to 19.76 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | every time one of these variants | 6.24 | Jump to 28.56 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | occurs every one every successive one | 4.8 | Jump to 31.599 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | hasn't been quite as bad as the one | 3.279 | Jump to 34.8 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | they weren't going to do it two years in | 3.439 | Jump to 41.6 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | so i think the fourth quarter is is kind | 5.44 | Jump to 69.52 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | flight cancellations and then first | 4.161 | Jump to 92.799 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | clutter the first quarter is always the | 3.68 | Jump to 94.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | thinking about 2022 is inflationary | 4.481 | Jump to 122.799 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | two or three years now worth the demand | 5.919 | Jump to 133.04 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | is still down about 20 percent versus | 4.321 | Jump to 138.959 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the meat of 2022 so say second and third | 5.119 | Jump to 151.12 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | just showing that 2013 was an awful year | 4.401 | Jump to 165.519 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | just put up was one that we we captured | 3.92 | Jump to 201.2 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | specifically so 2013 was a particularly | 4.161 | Jump to 206.959 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | first part of your question | 3.761 | Jump to 215.599 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | only going for three or four days to | 6.481 | Jump to 242.239 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | three days | 2.881 | Jump to 260.959 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | notify you three or four days in advance | 4.24 | Jump to 304.0 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | this particular flight at whatever seven | 3.84 | Jump to 310.32 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | in the morning but you can take one at | 3.361 | Jump to 312.639 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | nine or ten in the morning and do you | 4.72 | Jump to 314.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | guess i guess the one point number that | 3.601 | Jump to 321.919 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | industry has to hire 35 000 to 40 000 | 5.121 | Jump to 340.479 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        QUANTITY
                      
                      
                        35 000 to 40 000
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | approaching 65 and | 4.8 | Jump to 355.28 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 65 and that's not a surprise you know | 5.519 | Jump to 362.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the day you're going to turn 65 | 5.761 | Jump to 365.919 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | many pilots will retire between 62 and | 6.959 | Jump to 371.68 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 63 anyway so you had this situation | 5.92 | Jump to 374.8 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | um fifteen thousand five hundred give or | 4.56 | Jump to 382.4 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        fifteen thousand five hundred
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | take a couple hundred um | 3.6 | Jump to 384.8 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        CARDINAL
                      
                      
                        a couple hundred
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | they were going to have about nine | 4.0 | Jump to 386.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | thousand pilots retired this decade amer | 5.519 | Jump to 388.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | uh united rather was gonna have about 7 | 5.2 | Jump to 390.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | 000 i want to say and delta also about | 4.081 | Jump to 393.919 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | six or seven thousand so we were going | 5.599 | Jump to 396.16 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        six or seven thousand
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | roughly three or four percent a year so | 3.921 | Jump to 406.639 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | pilots who were turning 65 in 2020 21 | 8.16 | Jump to 414.72 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | and 22 to think about retiring in 2020 | 6.88 | Jump to 419.28 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | the first half of the decade that you | 2.879 | Jump to 432.88 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        DATE
                      
                      
                        the first half of the decade
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | up with between 35 and 40 000 pilots to | 4.481 | Jump to 440.319 | 
                      
                        
                      
                        CARDINAL
                      
                      
                        between 35 and 40 000
                      
                     |  | 
              
                
                  | across the industry not only the three | 4.16 | Jump to 444.8 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | something like 12 or 15 percent a year | 4.8 | Jump to 458.16 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | southwest talks about growing six | 3.04 | Jump to 461.36 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | and alaska also talks about growing four | 4.16 | Jump to 464.4 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | to eight percent a year so when you | 3.679 | Jump to 466.96 |  |  | 
              
                
                  | recently as today they've got a hundred | 3.761 | Jump to 501.759 |  |  |