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the industry uh is one hot mess right 5.439 Jump to 6.24
now uh how messy do you think the fourth 5.12 Jump to 8.88
    ORDINAL fourth
quarters and the first quarters will be 4.801 Jump to 11.679
    DATE the first quarters
first of all brian thank you for your 3.28 Jump to 16.48
    ORDINAL first
this morning um so i think the fourth 5.2 Jump to 19.76
    TIME this morning
    ORDINAL fourth
every time one of these variants 6.24 Jump to 28.56
occurs every one every successive one 4.8 Jump to 31.599
hasn't been quite as bad as the one 3.279 Jump to 34.8
they weren't going to do it two years in 3.439 Jump to 41.6
    DATE two years
so i think the fourth quarter is is kind 5.44 Jump to 69.52
    DATE the fourth quarter
flight cancellations and then first 4.161 Jump to 92.799
    ORDINAL first
clutter the first quarter is always the 3.68 Jump to 94.96
    DATE the first quarter
thinking about 2022 is inflationary 4.481 Jump to 122.799
    DATE about 2022
two or three years now worth the demand 5.919 Jump to 133.04
    DATE two or three years
is still down about 20 percent versus 4.321 Jump to 138.959
    PERCENT about 20 percent
the meat of 2022 so say second and third 5.119 Jump to 151.12
    DATE 2022
    ORDINAL second
    ORDINAL third
just showing that 2013 was an awful year 4.401 Jump to 165.519
    DATE 2013
    DATE year
just put up was one that we we captured 3.92 Jump to 201.2
specifically so 2013 was a particularly 4.161 Jump to 206.959
    DATE 2013
first part of your question 3.761 Jump to 215.599
    ORDINAL first
only going for three or four days to 6.481 Jump to 242.239
    DATE three or four days
three days 2.881 Jump to 260.959
    DATE three days
notify you three or four days in advance 4.24 Jump to 304.0
    DATE three or four days
this particular flight at whatever seven 3.84 Jump to 310.32
    CARDINAL seven
in the morning but you can take one at 3.361 Jump to 312.639
nine or ten in the morning and do you 4.72 Jump to 314.16
    CARDINAL nine or ten
guess i guess the one point number that 3.601 Jump to 321.919
    CARDINAL one
industry has to hire 35 000 to 40 000 5.121 Jump to 340.479
    QUANTITY 35 000 to 40 000
approaching 65 and 4.8 Jump to 355.28
    CARDINAL 65
65 and that's not a surprise you know 5.519 Jump to 362.96
    CARDINAL 65
the day you're going to turn 65 5.761 Jump to 365.919
    DATE 65
many pilots will retire between 62 and 6.959 Jump to 371.68
    DATE between 62
63 anyway so you had this situation 5.92 Jump to 374.8
    CARDINAL 63
um fifteen thousand five hundred give or 4.56 Jump to 382.4
    DATE fifteen thousand five hundred
take a couple hundred um 3.6 Jump to 384.8
    CARDINAL a couple hundred
they were going to have about nine 4.0 Jump to 386.96
    CARDINAL about nine
thousand pilots retired this decade amer 5.519 Jump to 388.4
    CARDINAL thousand
    DATE this decade
uh united rather was gonna have about 7 5.2 Jump to 390.96
    CARDINAL about 7
000 i want to say and delta also about 4.081 Jump to 393.919
six or seven thousand so we were going 5.599 Jump to 396.16
    DATE six or seven thousand
roughly three or four percent a year so 3.921 Jump to 406.639
    CARDINAL roughly three
pilots who were turning 65 in 2020 21 8.16 Jump to 414.72
    CARDINAL 65
    DATE 2020 21
and 22 to think about retiring in 2020 6.88 Jump to 419.28
    CARDINAL 22
    DATE 2020
the first half of the decade that you 2.879 Jump to 432.88
    DATE the first half of the decade
up with between 35 and 40 000 pilots to 4.481 Jump to 440.319
    CARDINAL between 35 and 40 000
across the industry not only the three 4.16 Jump to 444.8
    CARDINAL three
something like 12 or 15 percent a year 4.8 Jump to 458.16
    PERCENT 12 or 15 percent
southwest talks about growing six 3.04 Jump to 461.36
    CARDINAL six
and alaska also talks about growing four 4.16 Jump to 464.4
    CARDINAL four
to eight percent a year so when you 3.679 Jump to 466.96
    PERCENT eight percent
recently as today they've got a hundred 3.761 Jump to 501.759
    DATE today
    CARDINAL a hundred