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Text duration start ents sentiment
two 2.961 Jump to 42.879
    CARDINAL two
interest rates near zero and updated its 4.479 Jump to 325.28
    CARDINAL zero
growth stands at 5.5 percent this year 6.16 Jump to 402.08
    PERCENT 5.5 percent
    DATE this year
and 4 next year 5.041 Jump to 405.039
    DATE 4 next year
months averaging 378 000 per month over 5.92 Jump to 418.88
    CARDINAL 378
the last three months 4.08 Jump to 422.16
    DATE the last three months
substantially falling six tenths of a 4.959 Jump to 426.24
    CARDINAL six tenths
and reaching 4.2 percent in november 5.761 Jump to 431.199
    PERCENT 4.2 percent
    DATE november
unemployment rate declining to 3.5 5.199 Jump to 496.72
    CARDINAL 3.5
well above our two percent longer run 2.88 Jump to 537.6
    PERCENT two percent
closer to our two percent longer run 4.479 Jump to 576.48
    PERCENT two percent
participants falls from 5.3 percent this 6.161 Jump to 583.279
    PERCENT 5.3 percent
year to 2.6 percent next year 5.28 Jump to 586.08
    PERCENT 2.6 percent
    DATE next year
reaffirmed the zero to one-quarter 3.36 Jump to 633.76
    CARDINAL zero
    DATE one-quarter
with inflation having exceeded two 3.04 Jump to 647.44
    CARDINAL two
rate is 0.9 percent at the end of 2022 5.759 Jump to 669.2
    PERCENT 0.9 percent
    DATE the end of 2022
of 2024 these projections do not 4.48 Jump to 687.76
    DATE 2024
and no one knows with any certainty 3.839 Jump to 692.24
purchases by 20 billion dollars for 4.481 Jump to 708.399
    MONEY 20 billion dollars
treasury securities and 10 billion 3.361 Jump to 710.959
    MONEY 10 billion
keep rates near zero until label market 4.32 Jump to 800.16
    CARDINAL zero
three rate hikes penciled in the 3.279 Jump to 806.8
    CARDINAL three
one number that that sort of dominates 4.961 Jump to 867.839
    CARDINAL one
have any impact for six months or a year 3.28 Jump to 913.6
    DATE six months or a year
the first part of your question which is 3.519 Jump to 932.56
    ORDINAL first
two meetings away now from from 3.76 Jump to 952.24
    CARDINAL two
variable lags is an interesting one 3.2 Jump to 963.12
year or 18 months shorter than that 3.92 Jump to 985.68
    DATE 18 months
uh since we're two meetings away from 4.48 Jump to 1043.76
    CARDINAL two
the taper and the first interest rate 4.48 Jump to 1083.76
    ORDINAL first
increase back in 2014 the guidance was 4.24 Jump to 1085.679
    DATE 2014
we had our first discussion about the 4.0 Jump to 1114.559
    ORDINAL first
this you said four percent 3.92 Jump to 1197.44
    PERCENT four percent
we had in february of 2020 and i think 5.04 Jump to 1233.6
    DATE 2020
so i would say look we're we're at 4.2 4.32 Jump to 1261.2
    CARDINAL 4.2
of four percent 4.24 Jump to 1269.36
    PERCENT four percent
labor labor first participation of 3.041 Jump to 1280.159
    ORDINAL first
certainly welcomed the two-tenths 3.44 Jump to 1305.28
    CARDINAL two-tenths
one of your colleagues the 4.079 Jump to 1462.48
    CARDINAL one
that's a first draft uh we're a long way 5.2 Jump to 1524.4
    ORDINAL first
we'll know a whole lot more in three 2.64 Jump to 1614.48
    CARDINAL three
six weeks 3.76 Jump to 1617.12
    DATE six weeks
comfortable putting away one of your 4.561 Jump to 1622.559
    CARDINAL one
certainly we had five months of 4.4 Jump to 1715.44
    DATE five months
one of the consequences of that is that 3.199 Jump to 1740.72
    CARDINAL one
high 5.7 uh reading for the employment 5.76 Jump to 1759.039
    CARDINAL 5.7
compensation index for the third quarter 3.839 Jump to 1762.96
    DATE the third quarter
not annualized for the third quarter 5.36 Jump to 1764.799
    DATE the third quarter
for a second there whether we whether we 3.921 Jump to 1770.159
    ORDINAL second
next friday after the meeting two days 3.039 Jump to 1779.12
    DATE next friday
    DATE two days
tight labor market six tenths over one 5.2 Jump to 1819.44
    CARDINAL six tenths over one
noted that the eci was one of the things 3.52 Jump to 1837.279
you what you're talking about the three 2.88 Jump to 1994.96
    CARDINAL three
that growth will be four percent and 3.2 Jump to 1999.12
    PERCENT four percent
then unemployment will be three and a 3.04 Jump to 2000.96
    CARDINAL three
we no one will say oh we can't we can't 4.321 Jump to 2012.159
down in december that no one's ever said 4.32 Jump to 2018.0
have to wait you know we look at our two 3.361 Jump to 2035.519
    CARDINAL two
one of the things you look at 3.279 Jump to 2176.8
    CARDINAL one
of the things you could get to 20 if you 4.16 Jump to 2182.72
    CARDINAL 20
and wages that's that's really one of 3.681 Jump to 2197.599
another one uh 3.12 Jump to 2201.28
the quits rate is is really one of the 3.68 Jump to 2202.72
about it but the the the one of the 4.16 Jump to 2230.64
move up in two years would we wait two 4.24 Jump to 2245.04
    DATE two years
    CARDINAL two
in real time is is one way to think 4.32 Jump to 2258.64
second if if you do raise interest rates 6.399 Jump to 2265.2
    ORDINAL second
the last expansion is one way of doing 3.92 Jump to 2345.52
    CARDINAL one
everywhere that's one thing the the lack 4.88 Jump to 2394.4
    CARDINAL one
may go back to being a one income rather 3.76 Jump to 2410.079
    CARDINAL one
than a two income family the same thing 3.92 Jump to 2411.76
    CARDINAL two
number one thing it would 4.72 Jump to 2503.2
    CARDINAL number one
february 2020 levels because people are 5.36 Jump to 2529.44
    DATE february 2020
um but uh so one would expect over time 5.801 Jump to 2548.839
2020 indeed for the for the year or so 5.679 Jump to 2574.4
    DATE 2020
before that is a good one and i mean i 5.599 Jump to 2576.48
is one of them and we'd love to get back 3.921 Jump to 2609.119
    CARDINAL one
it might be one of the two big threats 4.16 Jump to 2620.56
    CARDINAL two
having over the last 40 years we've had 4.159 Jump to 2635.68
    DATE the last 40 years
i think three of the four longest in our 3.919 Jump to 2637.68
    CARDINAL three
    CARDINAL four
last one which was the longest in our 3.441 Jump to 2641.599
four point six percent month over month 3.76 Jump to 2677.2
    PERCENT four point six percent
    DATE month
also department store sales down five 4.0 Jump to 2678.72
    CARDINAL five
point four percent month over month how 2.96 Jump to 2680.96
fourth quarter 2.56 Jump to 2736.4
    DATE fourth quarter
significantly for 2021 4.36 Jump to 2755.28
    DATE 2021
2022 and 2023 5.56 Jump to 2759.64
    DATE 2022
    DATE 2023
up by by four tenths each so that's a 4.161 Jump to 2794.319
    CARDINAL four tenths
for one reason as i just mentioned it's 3.76 Jump to 2899.68
    CARDINAL one
it's one of the two big threats the 3.52 Jump to 2902.0
    CARDINAL one
    CARDINAL two
a decade and more four-part financial 4.319 Jump to 2947.04
    CARDINAL four
individually and and there are four key 4.0 Jump to 2958.72
    CARDINAL four
variant that we have is that one but 4.48 Jump to 3043.04
it's certainly one we're looking at 4.641 Jump to 3045.119
you know one that we 4.079 Jump to 3058.24
you know associated with one of the 5.361 Jump to 3123.119
    CARDINAL one
in two meetings and we'll be in a 3.36 Jump to 3267.44
    CARDINAL two
about one it's a one and a quarter 4.72 Jump to 3340.24
medians are for four percent growth next 4.0 Jump to 3400.88
    PERCENT four percent
year three and a half percent 3.521 Jump to 3403.119
uh three hundred percent unemployment at 4.0 Jump to 3404.88
    PERCENT three hundred percent
you know headline inflation of two point 4.56 Jump to 3408.88
    CARDINAL two
six percent next year core 2.7 so this 4.959 Jump to 3410.64
    PERCENT six percent
    DATE next year
    CARDINAL 2.7
is a strong economy it one in which it's 3.6 Jump to 3413.44
second question was 4.8 Jump to 3420.799
    ORDINAL second
my second question was about uh runoff 6.399 Jump to 3423.2
    ORDINAL second
of a prelim first a first discussion of 5.2 Jump to 3433.68
    ORDINAL first
    ORDINAL first
but to one degree or another people 3.281 Jump to 3457.599
right so we had three and a half percent 5.199 Jump to 3542.4
to two percent 4.48 Jump to 3549.04
    PERCENT two percent
no one had seen what three and a half 2.561 Jump to 3561.599
    DATE three and a half
one had seen what it would look like had 2.401 Jump to 3567.839
there was barely two percent inflation 4.64 Jump to 3576.4
    PERCENT barely two percent
lifetime certainly historic the first 5.359 Jump to 3622.72
    ORDINAL first
judge in 25 years whether whether we 3.68 Jump to 3642.96
    DATE 25 years
is the right one for for the situation 5.24 Jump to 3651.04
the tenure at a 146 basis points um do 5.601 Jump to 3663.599
    CARDINAL 146
actions over the last six weeks 4.721 Jump to 3676.559
    DATE the last six weeks
happens we we end up cutting rates three 4.24 Jump to 3772.0
    CARDINAL three
two and a quarter to two and a half 3.92 Jump to 3776.24
    DATE two and a quarter to two and a half
two days after the meeting and then one 3.281 Jump to 3837.119
    DATE two days
week after that i think on the 12th of 3.68 Jump to 3838.72
    DATE the 12th of
concert with those two 4.321 Jump to 3844.559
    CARDINAL two
10 days or so before 3.84 Jump to 3854.88
    DATE 10 days or so